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eFXnews is the source for high-end foreign exchange, central bank & global currency trading research.
Canadian Dollar
CIBC FX Strategy Research argues that while CAD strength could extend towards a temporarily closing in on 1.25, it will also be a key factor in sending the BoC to the sidelines, letting a Fed hike in December re-widen interest margins in favor of the USD. "In the past, the BoC has signaled...
US Dollar Japanese Yen
BTMU FX Strategy Research argues notes that Japanese investors repatriating revenue and exporters buying JPY could continue to support a USDJPY drop in mid-July. "Such moves would not be risk-off moves, but support JPY appreciation positively. Yellen has not been very dovish and Japanese investors may support the lower bound of...
USDJPY - Yen Dollar
NAB FX Strategy Research outlines 3 scenario analysis into its USD/JPY model that estimates fair value (fv) targets based on movements in 10y USTs, gold and the Nikkei.  1- "Leaving gold and the Nikkei unchanged and 10y UST at 2.75% (our end year forecast) sees USD/JPY rising to ¥119. 2- An extreme risk off scenario...
Canadian Dollar
TD Research continues to maintain its call that the BoC will leave rates on hold at this week’s meeting. "We still think it is likely to be a much closer call than current market pricing suggests and look for the Bank to deliver a hawkish hold instead of a 25bp rate...
Great British Pound
Barclays Capital FX Strategy Research notes that the recent hawkish stance of the BoE following Governor Carney’s speech last week come could likely be an attempt by the central bank to defend the credibility of GBP. "We had long expected the BoE’s MPC members to support the currency by means of an eventual...
Canadian Dollar
Nomura FX Strategy Research base case is now for the BoC to raise interest rates by 25bp at its 12 July meeting, followed by another hike by December. "The post-oil shock “insurance” of looser policy settings is no longer needed, in our view," Nomura argues. "We remain positive on CAD over the medium...
Euro
Barclays Capital FX Strategy Research expects the EUR to face some roadblocks and holds a base case for EUR/USD to range trade. "We believe that the ECB, with a still significant output gap and the benefit of having seen how the inflation story has played out thus far in the...
Great British Pound
CIBC FX Strategy Research notes that GBP/USD continues to flirt with the 1.30 threshold, well above the levels that were feared in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote just over a year ago. "However, that’s still not a particularly good performance, with much of the recent pick-up due to US$...
SWISS FRANC
Danske Bank FX Strategy Research argues that with an ECB exit from negative rates still not in the cards, the SNB could be forced to sell CHF still. "As we do not think the ECB is rushing for the exit, it will take some time for this long-standing undervaluation in EUR/CHF...
Australian Dollar
ING FX Strategy Research Although  argues that while AUD has stayed bid as of late, the near-term risks stemming from the external environment could see AUD loses ground.  "Investors are contemplating two Trump worlds: a revival of US reflation hopes or more tough talk on trade policy. Both will be negative for the rate-...
Great British Pound
Danske Bank FX Strategy Research expects GBP to likely stay in undervalued territory during Brexit talks but be highly sensitive to progress in discussions. "The domestic outlook in the UK is unlikely to provide much relief for the GBP near term: growth is set to slow and BoE to remain on...
Canadian Dollar
Credit Agricole CIB FX Strategy Research argues that as the markets have been predominantly focused on the current inflation data and appear to be pricing in an overly cautious Fed, there is a room for the US yields and the USD to rebound further as these Fed expectations are at least...
Euro Vs Poud
Societe Generale FX Strategy Research makes the case for further EUR/GBP gains targeting 0.90 in Q3.  "The UK economy has weathered the 12 months since the vote to leave the EU better than feared, though the 1Q gain in GDP was, at 0.1% qoq, the slowest in the EU and the uncertainty...
Great British Pound
Bank of America Merrill Lynch Research expects no major changes in tone at the BoE's policy meeting on Thursday. "We look for another 7-1 vote to keep rates on hold We see the end of austerity narrative supporting a bearish rates bias in the short term. BoE should be a non-event...
Euro
Danske Bank FX Strategy Research holds an anti-consensus view that sees the Fed skipping hiking at the tomorrow's meeting and instead announcing the triggers for quantitative tightening (QT). However, Danske argues that such an outcome should be USD positive and should lead to the start of a correction in EUR/USD over the Summer. "For EUR/USD,...
Euro Dollar
Societe Generale FX Technical Strategy notes an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern on EUR/USD weekly charts. Such a pattern, according to SocGen, has taken shape at the down slanting channel support at 1.0350. "The pattern’s validation level stands at 1.0860/1.08, which also coincides with multiyear graphical levels. Thus, EUR/USD looks poised to head higher initially...
Great British Pound
SEB FX Strategy Research outlines 3 main scenarios for the UK elections on Thursday and the potential GBP direction for each of them. "1) Tory majority: This is by far the most expected outcome and is likely mostly discounted in current market prices. Nevertheless, we believe such a result would cause the pound...
Great British Pound
NAB FX Strategy Research outlines 3 main scenarios for the UK elections on Thursday and the potential GBP direction for each of them. 1- "A Conservative victory with an increased majority would now see at least a modest relief rally for GBP." 2- "If the Conservatives secure victory but with no material improvement in their majority, there will...
Euro Vs Poud
Danske Bank FX Strategy Research outlines 3 scenarios for the outcome of the UK elections on Thursday and the potential target for EUR/GBP for each of them: 1- (Base Case) "We maintain the view that if Theresa May consolidates her majority substantially it would be GBP positive. We are looking for EUR/GBP in...
Australian Dollar
NAB FX Technical Strategy Strategy Research notes that AUD/USD repeated failures above 0.77 in 2017 confirm that resistance at 0.7750/0.7835 is likely to remain a firm obstacle. "The recent bullish weekly reversal pattern has had a neutralising impact on the multi-month downtrend. This places us in a low conviction state while negative...
US Dollar Japanese Yen
Bank of America Merrill Lynch FX Strategy Research expects a summer rally in USD/JPY. Such a potential rally, according to BofAML, should be backed by receding external political risks, inexpensive valuation, and solid fundamentals. In particular, BofAML argues that the risk/reward balance on NKY, USD/JPY and EUR/JPY seemed to have already shifted as positive...
British Pound
ANZ FX Strategy Research notes that the initial rally in sterling based on expectations of a landslide victory for PM May in the 8 June general election is unwinding as opinion polls show a sharp rise in the support for the opposition. In that regard, ANZ notes that Brexit negotiations are...
WTI OIL
Danske Bank Strategy Research discusses its outlook for Oil and USD after the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) decided today to extend the deal to cut oil production agreed last November for another nine months with effect from 1 July. "Following the announcement, the price on Brent crude has dropped...
New Zealand Dollar
NAB FX Technical Strategy Research notes that NZD/USD MT downtrend has not broken while price remains under trend resistance at 0.7060/80. In addition, NAB notes that the emergence  of a positive MT momentum bias and potential for a bullish LT reversal pattern (month end close above 0.7005) raise a significant degree...
Canadian Dollar
Nomura FX Strategy Research notes that the recent commentary from OPEC officials suggests production cut extensions are likely to be agreed on at Thursday’s meeting. "We see scope for continued oil price support if an extension is agreed on, and think oil prices have a few more months of positive narrative...
Euro
Danske Bank FX Strategy Research notes that EUR/USD has moved very far, very rapidly in a very short period on the ongoing accelerated repricing of both Europe and the US. "The difference in the economic surprise indices between the eurozone and the US is at the highest level since spring 2015 and...
Canadian Dollar
CIBC FX Strategy Research notes that short CAD positions have grown, as scrutiny on the housing market and trade policies returned. "However, we felt that was an overreaction and it does appear sentiment is improving again. That doesn’t necessarily mean a sharp bounce back in the C$ though," CIBC adds. "Previous instances...
Canadian Dollar
CitiFX Technical Strategy Research notes that USD/CAD is hovering around short-term support at 1.3589. If the pair manages to clear this level and closes below it on a daily basis, this would trigger a bearish signal, Citi argues. "Should we see a close below there, which is our bias, it would then open...
Euro Dollar
ABN AMRO FX Strategy Research makes the case for further EUR/USD upside this year on the ground of 5 key reasons: ABN argues that: 1- "a 25bp Fed rate hike in June is fully discounted and a 25bp rate hike in September is for around 50% priced in. 2-The market will continue to focus...
Euro Dollar
Danske Bank FX Strategy Research notes that EUR/USD flows have seen pronounced swings in anticipation of monetary policy in recent years and while it is too early to call a clear shift in ECB policy away from easing, EUR/USD flows may have gradually started to reverse suggesting further gains ahead.  In...

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