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eFXnews is the source for high-end foreign exchange, central bank & global currency trading research.
New Zealand Dollar
NAB FX Technical Strategy Research notes that NZD/USD MT downtrend has not broken while price remains under trend resistance at 0.7060/80. In addition, NAB notes that the emergence  of a positive MT momentum bias and potential for a bullish LT reversal pattern (month end close above 0.7005) raise a significant degree...
Canadian Dollar
Nomura FX Strategy Research notes that the recent commentary from OPEC officials suggests production cut extensions are likely to be agreed on at Thursday’s meeting. "We see scope for continued oil price support if an extension is agreed on, and think oil prices have a few more months of positive narrative...
Euro
Danske Bank FX Strategy Research notes that EUR/USD has moved very far, very rapidly in a very short period on the ongoing accelerated repricing of both Europe and the US. "The difference in the economic surprise indices between the eurozone and the US is at the highest level since spring 2015 and...
Canadian Dollar
CIBC FX Strategy Research notes that short CAD positions have grown, as scrutiny on the housing market and trade policies returned. "However, we felt that was an overreaction and it does appear sentiment is improving again. That doesn’t necessarily mean a sharp bounce back in the C$ though," CIBC adds. "Previous instances...
Canadian Dollar
CitiFX Technical Strategy Research notes that USD/CAD is hovering around short-term support at 1.3589. If the pair manages to clear this level and closes below it on a daily basis, this would trigger a bearish signal, Citi argues. "Should we see a close below there, which is our bias, it would then open...
Euro Dollar
ABN AMRO FX Strategy Research makes the case for further EUR/USD upside this year on the ground of 5 key reasons: ABN argues that: 1- "a 25bp Fed rate hike in June is fully discounted and a 25bp rate hike in September is for around 50% priced in. 2-The market will continue to focus...
Euro Dollar
Danske Bank FX Strategy Research notes that EUR/USD flows have seen pronounced swings in anticipation of monetary policy in recent years and while it is too early to call a clear shift in ECB policy away from easing, EUR/USD flows may have gradually started to reverse suggesting further gains ahead.  In...
US Dollar Japanese Yen
Danske FX Strategy Research notes that USD/JPY has rallied sharply since mid-April, as equity markets and US yields have rebounded. In that regard, Danske argues that the key driver for USD/JPY remains relative interest rates – most notably the 10Y US yield – and risk appetite in general. "...Given the current divergence between commodity...
Euro Dollar
BTMU FX Strategy Research has raised its EUR forecast as it predicts that markets are no longer concerned about European political risk following Emmanuel Macron’s win in the French Presidential election. "Light is beginning to emerge at the end of the tunnel for the euro and we’re confident that it has bottomed...
Bank of England
Bank of America Merrill Lynch Research sees little reason for a hawkish Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report on Thursday.  On the FX front front, BofAML notes that judging by the level of front-end implied volatility, FX markets expect very little tail risk from Super Thursday in line with BofAML's economists' expectations. "The resilience of GBP...
British Pound
CIBC FX Strategy Research notes that going into the snap UK general election on May 8th, investors are assuming that the Conservatives, under PM May, will win a larger majority which will limit the power of hard core Brexiteers within the party and as such, the result would be...
Great British Pound
Standard Chartered  FX Strategy Research expects marginal GBP/USD upside around the June-8 UK general election towards 1.30 through the end of June. Beyond that, SC maintained its view of GBP/USD downside through the remained of the year. "Early UK-EU Brexit negotiations suggest the two parties are poles apart on key issues. The risk...
Euro Dollar
Barclays Capital FX Strategy Research argues that the victory of Emmanuel Macron carries the risk of a 'buy the rumor, sell the fact' for EUR/USD.  Such a risk, according to Barclays, implies a down-move in EUR/USD, given the current long EUR pre-positioning and given that the EUR political-risk premium was reduced significantly...
Canadian Dollar
TD FX Strategy Research notes that USD/CAD continues to trade well in excess of its cyclically implied level despite the weakness in some of the underlying drivers (lower CAD rates and oil). However, TD argues that USD/CAD price action has run well-ahead of the fundamentals since key technical breaks are signaling...
US Dollar
Nomura Research expects no change in short-term interest rate policy at tomorrow's FOMC meeting and expects markets to pay 'significant attention' to the language of the FOMC statement. "Attention has shifted towards the Fed’s balance sheet policy in recent months with multiple speeches by Fed officials stressing the need for a...
US Dollar Japanese Yen
NAB FX Strategy Research notes that USD/JPY is currently trading around 3 big figures higher relative to the 108.21 lows reached on 17 April. In particular, NAB notes that the recent rebound in the pair was originally fuelled by an ease in geopolitical and global trade concerns and was then boosted...
Mario Draghi
The following are brief expectations for the ECB April meeting statement as compiled from the related research reports of 7 major banks. Overall, they see the ECB on hold with a neutral to a slightly dovish message and sees EUR a buy on dips.  Nomura Research: Nomura expects all the ECB’s key policy parameters to...
Canadian Dollar
TD FX Strategy Research argues that USD/CAD looks expensive around current levels and if moves higher to 1.3650, the pair will be close to three standard deviations overvalued on TD valuation models. As such, TD recommends using trade-related bounces to reengage with new short USDCAD exposure, which should see the pair gradually push back...
Canadian Dollar
CIBC FX Strategy Research notes that the turnaround in Canada’s economy over the past six months or so has been pretty impressive, as Canadian GDP growth appears to be accelerating above the OECD average again. Yet, CIBC notes that CAD has been an underperformer recently and is the only major currency down...
British Pound
Barclays Capital FX Strategy Research expects the GBP to remain supported going into the snap UK general election, but notes that global sentiment amid geopolitical risks is likely to stay a key driver in the near-term. On  the BoE front, Barclays doesn't expect the central bank to signal any change in policy...
British Pound US Dollar
NAB FX Strategy Research notes that the GBP has stages a significant rally in reaction to UK Prime Minister Theresa May's calling for a snap General Election on June 8th 2017. In that regard, NAB notes the GBP/USD exchange rate has broken its 200 day moving average for the first time...
Euro Dollar
CitiFX Research argues that as French elections are looming, investors may be reluctant to take positions. "This is likely to see range trade in EUR in the days ahead, with some scope for downward drift," Citi adds. On the GBP front, Citi notes that the key data release will be the UK...
Japanese Yen
Bank of America Merrill Lynch FX Strategy Research reiterated its view that JPY strength may be overdone and that the USD/JPY's medium-term uptrend has not ended despite the recent technical sell off through 110 where BofAML stopped out of its long recommendation.  In that regard, BofAML argues that global risk events may not fully explain the extent of JPY strength, and flow dynamics could have been behind...
US Dollar Japanese Yen
ANB AMRO FX Strategy Research notes that the recent deterioration in investor sentiment has resulted in a strengthening of the yen across the board. In that regard, ANB AMRO argues that the the current developments in the options market suggest that investors have started to hedge the possibility of an unfavorable outcome in...
Australian Dollar
NAB FX Strategy Research outlines 4 specific factors behind the latest slippage and resumption of the AUD downtrend: 1. The RBA’s post-meeting statement on 4 April which acknowledged recent weakening in the labor market has promoted the money market to remove any risk of higher RBA rates over the next year.  2. A...
Euro Vs Poud
JP Morgan FX Technical Strategy Research sees a high likelihood that a sustainable high has been marked in EUR/GBP at 0.9403 in October and that a much broader down-consolidation if not a new downtrend has been launched. "The former has a minimum price target of 0.8168 (50 % of the 2015-2016 rally)...
British Pound
JP Morgan FX Technical Strategy notes that GBP/USD is at risk of resuming its broader down-consolidation but for this to be indicated it would take a break below 1.2316 which if seen would target a deeper setback to 1.2229, to 1.1988 or to 1.1794. However, If this level at 1.2316 holds on a daily closing...
Euro Dollar
BTMU FX Strategy Research argues that the turning point for USD Bulls may have arrived a little earlier than what originally expected and has changed its forecast for USD predicting a period of dollar depreciation ahead. BTMU's rationale behind this view is that some key FX themes are now working against the dollar especially...
US Dollar
Barclays Capital FX Strategy Research expects the USD to trade sideways this week going into the FOMC minutes on Wednesday and the jobs report on Friday. On the FOMC minutes, Barclays notes that the focus will be on gauging the extent of the conversation about balance sheet reduction. On the jobs report, Barclays expect...
Euro Dollar
Credit Agricole CIB Research notes the outlook for EUR continues to be determined by two largely conflicting drivers. On the one hand, CACIB notes that we have Eurozone political risks ahead of the French, German and Italian elections in Q217 and Q317 and Q118, which will continue to make investors cautious on...

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