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Think Markets

Think Markets
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Federal Reserve FOMC Stocks
Sceptical About Dollar Rally Hawkish FOMC Minutes Could Push Gold Lower UK Earning Data Could Save Sterling API Data Tumbled While Focus on Crude Inventory European markets are  keeping their attention on the upcoming FOMC minutes. The saggy inflation data could have an influence on the Fed minutes. The...
US Dollar
Risk off trade a major theme Gold eased off but not no major sell off Dollar Index moving higher on Dudley's comment Oil price struggles due to lack of demand The US futures show that markets would extend their gains and investors would also continue to reward the equity...
US Dollar Japanese Yen
Japan Overwhelms While China Underwhelms Global Arena Looks At Trump Temper Bearish Bets At A Record Level Since 2013 No Hope For Sterling Bounce Oil Lower After OPEC Supply Spikes Japan Overwhelms While China Underwhelms  Investors in Europe are tracking the gains over in Asia and they are more optimistic...
Euro Dollar
The Dollar Index Bounce Strongly On Cards Euro Weaker Against Dollar But Strong Against Sterling The Dollar Index Bounce Strongly On Cards  The US JOLTS data also gave traders hopes that the US firms will keep employing and the pace of hiring would be solid. At the same time, there...
Chinese Yuan
Chinese Trade balance shows global growth improving Fed will focus on PPI and CPI data for a rate hike US NFP tail wind for the dollar stops Oil traders focus on compliance Gold changes gear The Chinese trade balance data is weighing on the sentiment over in Europe and...
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The US NFP data was released and in the initial reaction the dollar moved higher, Treasuries fell and the equity markets loved the news. The US non-farm employment number came ahead of the expectations with the reading of 209K while the forecast was for 182K. At 180K the market...
Gold Commodity
US NFP would impact the gold price Technicals are showing some important signals Investors have one focus, which is what the impact of the US non-farm payroll data on the Fed interest rate hike will be. The odds are very low that we are going to see another rate...
Australian Dollar Currency
It’s well known that a higher exchange rate is a headache for the RBA, so AUD’s break of 80c made this a core focus of today’s statement. The higher AUD was clearly attributed to a weaker USD, yet as this issue is out of their hands they may not fancy...
Euro Currency
A snapshot of large speculator's poitioning from the weekly CFTC report and analysis of related futures markets. - US Dollar index is now net short for the first time since June 2014 - The Canadian Dollar saw the largest week change of net positioning (+18.6k) which saw an increase of 10.4k...
Currencies
A snapshot of the economic calendar and notes on potential catalysts for markets next week. USD: The US Dollar continues dive in freefall fashion as soft data, negative Whitehouse sentiment and technicals point lower. Next week provides a broad look at the US economy as it includes inflation, employment and business...
Janet Yellen - Federal Reserve
Despite the mention of balance sheet reduction beginning 'relatively soon' markets sent the Dollar to fresh lows as they continue to doubt fed's ability to raise once more this year. Summary of the July meeting (read full statement) The labour market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has...
Australian Dollar Currency
The conflicting forces await AUD tomorrow which could instil volatility back into the battler. Conflicting forces await AUD tomorrow which could instil volatility back into AUD crosses. On one hand, any sign of a pick-up of inflation could get hawks and bulls into a frenzy as AUD traders gun for 80c...
Europe
The Euro moved to a 2-year high following the ECB meeting, despite their being no changes to policy or real indication and refusal to discuss stimulus. In an apparent effort to calm the markets after Draghi’s previous comment in June sent bond yields and the Euro soaring, the move seemingly...
European Central Bank
For the first time in nearly six quarters, we have seen some life coming back in the lending survey. Although the numbers are not extraordinarily outstanding, at the same time,  they do provide enough catalyst for the ECB to put breaks on their ultra-loose monetary policy. Industrial production (hard data) in...
Australian Dollar Currency
Data from the US on Friday sent the US Dollar Index to a 10-month low, along with expectations of Fed tightening any time soon. We had argued that US data had the potential to surprise to the upside in H2, yet the dismal set of inflation and consumer spending make...
German Economy DAX
German CPI Matched Forecast Could Yellen Save The Day For Dollar? GBP Eye BOE Credit Condition Survey The German CPI data released this morning pushed the euro-dollar pair higher as the number (0.2%) that matched the forecast. The needle for inflation hasn't moved therefore, it confirms that Mario Draghi...
Silver
Taper Tantrum creates more uncertainity in the market Silver took a nose dive, who to blame? The taper tantrum is here and you can thank the hawkish tone of the central banks which is creating this situation. Buyers are less inclined to buy bonds because in the absence of the central...
Reserve Bank of Australia
The RBA’s refusal to join in on the hawkish action yesterday seemingly caught traders off guard, causing AUD crosses to provide the larger moves overnight. Yet we are more surprised this came as a surprise. RBA don’t want a higher currency and they remain concerned over financial stability in a...
US Dollar Currency
ISM manufacturing data helped the greenback start the quarter on a positive note, and post its most bullish session in four months ahead of the July 4th holiday. The PMI’s rise to 57.8 is its fastest rate of expansion since August 2014 which was supported by rising new orders and...
Japanese Yen
The weaker Yen has benefitted the Nikkei which now appears on track for another leg higher towards the 20,400 targets. AUDJPY has since paused below a critical juncture yet we suspect the odds favour an eventual upside break. The Nikkei printed a solid bull candle on Friday to suggest the...
Euro Currency
A snapshot view of the calendar for next week and commentary on potential catalyst of data of interest. USD: GDP revisions don’t tend to be the most exciting of releases, not helped by the fact the initial release is already months behind the leading indicators which got us here. Yet as...
London Stock Exchange FTSE
The bullish target to 20,400 is on the backburner whilst we decipher whether the correction will deepen below 20k. Whilst STOXX and CAC remain above key support, the latter appears to have a bullish edge further out. The Nikkei 225 struggled to break the weekly R2 before promptly reverting to...
Australia
The RBA remained positive on their economic outlook yet have heightened concerns over financial stability, making a hike from the hawkish bank unlikely in the foreseeable future. In a speech yesterday, RBA Governor Philip Lowe said he expected growth to pick up slightly over the next couple of years although...
US Dollar Japanese Yen
Increased imports from China and Australia tipped Japan's trade into surplus in May. GBPJPY and USDJPY remain supported and may provide bullish opportunities as the week progresses. Japan’s trade dippedback into deficit for the first time since Jan as imports outstipped exports for the month of May. Imports exceeded estimates...
Reserve Bank of New Zealand
We think the recently removed reference to the exchange rate could make a return in next week's statement after several weeks of solid gain from NZD. AUDNZD is forming a potential bullish flag and NZDUSD upside from here is now being questioned. Manufacturing PMI expanded to its highest level since...
Federal Reserve FOMC Stocks
We foresaw the potential that CPI data released just hours prior to the FOMC meeting had the potential to steal its thunder. As the grim set of data was released, it looked as though that were to be the case – yet the Fed stood firm. Read the full statement ...
Bank of Canada
The Bank of Canada’s hawkish commentary continues to steel the limelight from Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, sending CAD higher against its peers and sinking USDCAD to a 3.5-month low. Poloz extended the bank’s hawkish commentary this week by saying that record low rates had “largely done their work”. BoC have effectively...
Great British Pound Currency
Data from Japan remains mixed but overall, supports tepid growth to continue. We continue to favour losses on GBPJPY around UK political turmoil ahead of Brexit negotiations, whilst Nikkei is expected to outperform ASX overt the coming weeks. Machinery orders expanded by 2.7% YoY, yet the monthly measure declined by...
Theresa May
European futures are trading lower as the FTSE 100 futures show that traders are not reacting too harshly towards the unexpected outcome of the UK general election Theresa May has suffered the worst night of her political career and now the question is; if, and, when she will resign from...
Canadian Dollar
Despite negative sentiment surrounding the Greenback, USDCAD holds onto key support. Whilst there is potential for a downside break, we continue to see the medium term as likely to favour a higher USDCAD. Ivey PMI contracted by -8.6 points in May, its fastest monthly decline since Feb 2016. The consensus...

LATEST

GBP recovers to 1.29 on surprise UK wages data

Great British Pound Currency
The UK wages growth surprised on the upside, as the British households saw their average earnings improved...

UK unemployment falls again to lowest since 1975, wage growth still lacklustre

Employee at Steel Plant China
Britain's unemployment labour market bucked tepid economic growth in the second quarter as the unemployment rate unexpectedly...

US Dollar holds gains

Federal Reserve
The dollar held on to big gains on Wednesday ahead of today's Federal Reserve's minutes. The Fed releases...

Dollar Torpedos Gold Whilst Oil Checks Its Inventory

Gold Commodity
Huge inventory draw saves crude’s blushes as a stronger dollar twists the knife in gold’s side. The American...
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