XAU/USD – Gold Lower, Markets Eye Trump Announcement on Iran

By Kenny Fisher, Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
OANDA MarketPulse

Gold has posted considerable losses in the Tuesday session. In North American trade, the spot price for an ounce of gold is $1309.34, down 0.30% on the day. On the release front, JOLTS Jobs Openings jumped to 6.55 million, crushing the estimate of 6.02 million. Later in the day, US President Trump makes a major speech and will announce if he is pulling the United States out of the Iran nuclear agreement. On Wednesday, the US releases PPI reports.

As a safe-haven asset, gold tends to go up in value during times of crises. Traders will be keeping carefully monitoring President Trump’s televised speech later on Tuesday. Trump is widely expected to announce that the US will be pulling out of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. This could lead to the entire agreement falling apart, without a ‘plan B’ in place to curtail the Iranian nuclear program. Aside from the nuclear deal, tensions between Iran and Israel have reached a fever pitch, as Iran has vowed to retaliate against Israel after a recent Israeli air strike in Syria resulted in Iranian casualties. Any military confrontation between the two foes would likely send gold prices higher.

The Federal Reserve’s newest regional Fed president, Thomas Barkin, delivered a major speech on Monday, and his tone was decidedly upbeat. Barkin said that the economy is “remarkably strong: above-trend growth, low unemployment, inflation at target”. Barkin added that although the labor market is strong, it is not causing pressure on wages, but low unemployment should lead to an increase in inflationary pressures. As for upcoming rate increases, Barkin was careful to remain mum on how many rate hikes he expects this year. The Fed raised rates in March by a quarter-point and continues to forecast two additional increases this year. However, some policymakers are calling for three more hikes, given the strong health of the US economy.

XAU/USD Fundamentals

Tuesday (May 8)

  • 3:15 Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Speaks
  • 6:00 US NFIB Small Business Index. Estimate 105.2. Actual 104.8
  • 10:00 US JOLTS Job Openings. Estimate 6.02M. Actual 6.55M
  • 10:02 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism. Estimate 51.3. Actual 53.6
  • 14:00 US President Trump Speaks

Wednesday (May 9)

  • 8:30 US PPI. Estimate 0.2%
  • 8:30 US Core PPI. Estimate 0.2%

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

XAU/USD for Tuesday, May 8, 2018

XAU/USD May 8 at 11:30 DST

Open: 1314.30 High: 1317.11 Low: 1306.16 Close: 1309.29

XAU/USD Technical

S3S2S1R1R2R3
126012851307133713751416
  • XAU/USD edged lower in the Asian session. The pair showed little movement in European trade. XAU/USD edged lower in North American trade but has recovered
  • 1307 was tested earlier in support. It is a weak line which could see further action in the North American session
  • 1337 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 1307 to 1337

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1307, 1285, 1260 and 1236
  • Above: 1337, 1375 and 1416

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

In the Monday session, XAU/USD ratio is showing long positions with a majority (71%). This indicative of trader bias towards XAU/USD reversing directions and moving upwards.