EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): EUR to trade sideways for now.
While the relatively large decline of -0.58% last Friday (NY close of 1.1340) came as a surprise, there is no change to our view and we continue to expect EUR “to trade sideways for now”. That said, downward pressure has ticked up and the immediate bias is on the downside. At this stage, we view any weakness as part of a 1.1280/1.1420 consolidation range. Looking ahead, a break of 1.1280 is not ruled out but for the next one week or so, the 1.1213 low seen two weeks ago is unlikely to come into the picture.
GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): Diminished prospect of GBP making fresh 2018 low.
GBP traded in a relatively quiet manner before ending the day lower by -0.42% (NY close of 1.2820). As highlighted last Friday (23 Nov, spot at 1.2875), the prospect for GBP making fresh 2018 low has diminished but only a break of the 1.2950 ‘key resistance’ would indicate that the current downward pressure has eased. Meanwhile, in order to revive the flagging momentum, GBP has to move and stay below 1.2800 or a break of the 1.2950 ‘key resistance’ would not be surprising.
AUD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Sep 18, spot at 0.7170): Short-term top in place; AUD to trade sideways for now.
AUD traded in a quiet manner over the past couple of days and there is no change to our view as highlighted last Wednesday (21 Nov, spot at 0.7215). As indicated, the 0.7338 high on 16 Nov is deemed as a short-term top and AUD is expected to stay below this top for a couple of weeks and trade sideways. In other words, the current movement is part of an on-going consolidation phase (expected to be between 0.7180/0.7320).
NZD/USD: Neutral (since 20 Aug 18, 0.6625): Short-term top in place, NZD to trade sideways for now. No change in view.
There is not much to add to our update from Wednesday (21 Nov, spot at 0.6790). As highlighted, NZD has likely made a short-term top at 0.6883 last week and the current price action is deemed as the part of a consolidation phase. Near-term, the immediate bias is tilted to the downside but any weakness is viewed as part of a 0.6720/0.6860 range.
USD/JPY: Neutral (since 09 Oct 18, 113.10): Chance for USD to weaken further to 112.00.
USD dipped briefly and touched 112.63 before rebounding to close unchanged in NY last Friday (112.94). The price action offers no further clues and for now, we continue to see chance (albeit diminishing) for USD to weaken to 112.00. On the upside, a break of the 113.40 (no change in ‘key resistance’ level) would indicate that the current downward pressure has eased.