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Amazing expectations emerged: Do you care when electric cars take over?

Global sales of electric vehicles have increased in recent years, with sales growing particularly spectacularly in 2020. As a result, the market share of electric vehicles has increased partially or entirely to 2.2 percent in the United States, 5 percent in China, and 9.3 percent. Cent in the European Union last year.

Factors such as increased competition between manufacturers, generous aid from the state, tighter regulatory environment, increased pressure from new arrivals, development of shipping infrastructure, development of Euros and new technologies, and increasingly efficient models and batteries resulting in hundreds of billions of dollars.

The latter equipment is the most expensive component of electric vehicles, accounting for 20 to 30 percent of the total manufacturing cost. It was highlighted in the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) material, which is why it is so important that the price of batteries has fallen dramatically in recent years. Leading manufacturers are there by 2020 to lower the average price for a 1 kWh battery pack from $ 1,000 to $ 150. This was about $ 20 less than BCG experts had expected in late 2019.

The price drop that we have seen in the past decade, which has greatly contributed to the rapid spread of electric cars, has played and continues to play an important role:

  • Continuous research and development of the chemical composition of batteries, the amazing results achieved here
  • Standardization and a much larger number of production pieces as well
  • Make your battery pack manufacturing processes more efficient

Significant progress has also been made in decision-making regarding electric cars over the past year. The European Union has set itself the very ambitious goal of achieving this

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By 2030, at least 30 million noise-free cars will be transported on European roads.

In the United States, Joe Biden is already at the start of his presidency He made a promise That in the future, more emphasis will be placed on moving as quickly as possible and on a large scale towards electric mobility. California Governor is under his authority AdvertiseTo ban the sale of new cars with internal combustion engines in the most populous US states from 2035. in March Led by Denmark and the Netherlands, nine countries have written a letter to the European Commission calling on policymakers to set a specific and binding date after which the sale of new gasoline and diesel cars will be banned.

Automakers, in turn, announce that the next five or ten years are completely ahead of us Give up They will then focus on the production and sale of vehicles equipped with internal combustion engines and exclusively on electric cars.

All of this played an important role in examining the Boston Consulting Group for the changes that have occurred compared to its 2020 forecast for the expected spread of electric vehicles. BCG model Update Bring shocking results:

Four years earlier than expected in early 2020, which means that by 2026, electric cars could partially and completely account for a large share of global auto sales.

The latest study specifically indicates that alternative-drive cars could account for 54 percent of total sales in five yearsWhile gasoline and diesel cars will account for only 46 percent of new cars sold worldwide.

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The just-released study puts forth a very strong forecast: As early as 2035, zero-emissions vehicles could become dominant in new car sales in the world’s largest auto markets.

Regarding these results, it is worth noting that it was conducted a few months ago In our podcast conversation We drew students’ attention to the fact that previously published forecasts are, in our view, overly pessimistic about the expected spread of electric cars.

There will be three main phases in the spread of electric cars

The Boston Consulting Group also stated in its paper that there will be three main phases of electric vehicle spread in the next decade.

In the next few years, it will be mainly open to buyers of new technologies and government incentives that will help electric cars become more widespread and faster. On the other hand, 2023 will be an important date, as the world’s leading automakers will release around 300 plug-in electric or hybrid models, meaning a much wider range than the one available now. This year, partially or completely new electric passenger cars will make up about 25 percent of global sales. Thanks to the efforts of the major manufacturers, and additional cuts in battery prices, more and more pure electric cars are becoming more and more competitive.

In practical terms, this would mean that the total cost of ownership of electric cars over five years would be roughly the same as gasoline and diesel cars, even without state subsidies.

This leads us to the big second stage, during which large crowds begin to switch to electric cars, because buying and owning them will be amazingly less expensive than buying and maintaining a vehicle that runs solely with an internal combustion engine. BCG expects the price of a battery pack per kilowatt-hour to drop to $ 75 by 2030, with pure electric vehicles accounting for 28 percent of global sales. However, their share of total sales will vary by region: they account for 43 percent of new car sales in China and 40 percent in the European Union.

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Another important change will be that as electric cars advance, the weight of the various hybrid models will decrease in global sales, while cars with internal combustion engines will decrease significantly.

The main factor in the recent phenomenon is that bans on the sale of new gasoline and diesel cars will go into effect in more and more countries by the end of the decade.

After 2030, the supply-driven third phase of the spread of electric cars will begin. More and more major car manufacturers are starting to do without petrol and diesel models or have already withdrawn from their offerings and gradually or completely switch to the production and sale of electric cars. As a result, about 45 percent of global car sales are actually generated by purely electric cars.

By 2035, electric cars will make up 54 percent of total sales in the United States, 58 percent in China, and 62 percent in the European Union.

Cover image source: Stefanie Loos / Bloomberg via Getty Images