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eFXnews is the source for high-end foreign exchange, central bank & global currency trading research.
Danske Research discusses the EUR outlook in light of revising higher its EUR yield and rates forecast."We have now pencilled in somewhat higher 10Y EUR and USD rates and yields (Germany) on a 12M horizon. We now expect the 10Y EUR swap rate to...
NAB Technical Strategy Research discusses Gold technical outlook and notes that the Weekly MACD and DMI have produced prominent bullish triggers in December / January and confirm a sustainable MT uptrend bias.Trend line dating back to 2013 highlights interim resistance at 1350/1355.A monthly close above...
Barclays Research discusses the USD outlook and notes that the renewed expectations of core central bank policy normalization and concerns about US policy priorities brought back USD softness after a short break early in the year, especially against JPY and EUR."The 19 January government...
Bank of America Merrill FX Technical Strategy Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and notes that the surge through 1.2092 is an early sign of a bullish breakout which should be confirmed with a close above 1.21."A closing and sustained breakout through the 1.2092-1.21 resistance area extends...
Bank of America Merrill Lynch FX Strategy Research discuss GBP outlook and thinks that going into early 2018, there are asymmetric risks from Brexit news for sterling."In our view, the risks to GBP are asymmetric. We continue to believe that the bar to further GBP...
Barclays Capital Research discusses GBP/USD outlook and thinks that the pair is prone for a correction lower in the near-term."The prospects for a tactical USD rebound will likely be the main driver for cable this week amid a light UK data and events calendar, which includes...
BTMU FX Strategy Research discusses USD/CAD outlook and think the pair is likely heading lower into BoC's January meeting next week, where BTMU expects the central bank to deliver a rate hike."It is understandable that market participants have brought forward expectations for the next BoC...
TD FX Strategy Research discusses the USD outlook and makes the case for staying firmly in the USD bear camp at the start the year."This view continues to rest on the links between global reflation, the closure of output gaps outside the US and the ongoing...
ING FX Strategy Research discusses the EUR outlook in 2018 and maintains a strong bullish bias on EUR/USD targeting a move towards 1.25."Our message to investors in 2018 is to embrace the strong euro; the next major catalyst for a move higher will be...
Societe Generale Cross Asset Strategy Research discusse the FX market outlook in 2018 from a relative valuation perspective."The dollar looks dull, but a bit expensive given where real yields are. The euro is cheap but needs markets to discount far into the future in order to...
Bank of America Merrill Lynch Research discusses the USD outlook and remains broadly bullish on the currency through Q1 and believes that the USD is currently trading around attractive entry levels for longs."Within a backdrop of constructive near-term fundamentals, we continue to think that upside risks related...
Nordea FX Strategy Research discusses EUR/USD outlook into year-end and warns of the possible negative impact on the pair from year-end liquidity shrink. "Basis swaps have been on the move recently, widening aggressively and making USD funding costlier. From now and until the end of this...
TD FX Strategy Research discusses the USD outlook and argues that its recent gains are likely to be short-lived on possible reversal into the US jobs report on Friday."The $ has staged a modest rebound in the past few days, rallying against most of the...
Societe Generale Cross Asset Strategy Research is out with its top FX trades for 2018 which includes 3 trades in spot (Long EUR/USD, Long AUD/NZD, and short USD/CAD). The 3 trades are structural-based that are meant to express SocGen's thematic views through the next 6 to 12 months.Long...
Nordea FX Strategy Research discusses EUR/USD outlook into year-end, and outlines 3 key reasons why the pair is still resilient and hasn't been traded significantly lower yet.1- Reason number one why EUR/USD trades at elevated levels still is the continued over-performance from European key figures compared to...
CIBC FX Strategy Research discusses NZD outlook, noticing that the post NZ election period has seen investors aggressively re-position their NZD bets."From a record long skew at the end of July, positions have unwound to such an extent that new shorts are nearing mid-2015...
Barclays Capital FX Strategy Research discusses USD/CAD outlook this week and notes that the market will be watching the outcome of the OPEC meeting on November 30 along with Canada's Q3 GDP and the November employment report which will be released on Friday."OPEC could...
Credit Agricole CIB FX Strategy Research discusses its USD/CAD outlook and making the case for staying tactically bullish CAD into year-end via maintaining a long USD/CAD position* from 1.2770, targeting a move to 1.2300, with a stop at 1.2925."The CAD has been caught between the...
Nordea FX Strategy Research discusses EUR/USD outlook, and recommends that investors should consider establishing short positions on bounces into the 1.1850 level."We admit that there has been plenty of technical damage done to the dollar as evident in a DXY index below its uptrend and a...
Barclays Capital FX Strategy Research discusses its EUR/USD outlook going into 2018, expecting a flat profile around 1.17 level into Q1 of next year before breaking higher towards the 1.20 level in Q2."The EUR's gains will likely remain supported by solid euro area growth, but...
NAB FX Strategy Research discusses USD/JPY outlook and remains cautiously optimistic retaining its view for USD/JPY to end the year closer to 116, but thinks the near term outlook remains somewhat challenging."Technicals are currently bearish, with a series of lower highs recorded last week and several...
Barclays Capital FX Strategy Research discusses GBP/USD outlook, arguing that Sterling faces symmetric risks after last week's sell-off."The gyrations of domestic politics in the UK will likely add downside risks to GBP this week, with the cabinet reshuffles in Westminster taking centre stage.On the other hand, however,...
Bank of America Merrill Lynch FX Strategy Research maintains its bearish EUR/USD outlook, noticing that the October range/right shoulder breakdown suggests EUR/USD should decline towards 1.1320."The range breakdown also broke the neckline of a larger head and shoulders top, onfirming spot could decline further. Note the 200d...
Nomura FX Strategy Research discusses GBP outlook in light of Sterling's decline in reaction to yesterday's BoE decision."The BoE’s communications were in line with our expectations, but the market reaction was in the wrong way and moved much more than what would make sense to...
CIBC Research argues that CAD is an attractive sell targeting a move in USD/CAD around 1.33 y end of Q1 of 2018."The Canadian dollar is still mispriced. Too many factors are pointing in unison to one direction—a lower loonie," CIBC argues.1- "First, the full cent drop...
Danske Bank FX Strategy Research discusses EUR/USD outlook after today's ECB meeting and ahead of next week's FOMC meeting."Overall, the dovish tapering message from the ECB today cements our sense that EUR/USD is range bound (1.19-1.16) on a 1-3M horizon with risks tilted a tad to...
CIBC FX Strategy Research argues that market positioning points to an upcoming selloff in CAD."Long positions in the currency have been built up to their highest levels since 2012 on the assumption that the past two rapid-fire rate hikes were indicative of the future path of...
Bank of America Merrill Lynch FX Strategy Research notes that its latest proprietary flows show officials selling the USD again last week, after having stopped the two weeks before.In addition, BofAML notes that its flows suggest more downside risk for NZD."Despite some hedge fund demand, strong...
NAB FX Technical Strategy Research maintains its bullish bias on AUD/USD arguing that from a price perspective the positive outlook that have been identified in recent months remains in play."Additional bullish confirmation will be achieved with  a monthly close above the 50-month MA at 0.8008. Momentum...
Nomura FX Strategy Research argues that for GBP traders in the short to medium term, the market will be more focused on Theresa May’s future, what the EU says on Brexit in October and then what the BoE decides in November for the direction of...