eFXnews

eFXnews
157 POSTS 0 COMMENTS
eFXnews is the source for high-end foreign exchange, central bank & global currency trading research.
TD Research discusses the USD outlook and maintains a tactical bullish bias especially EUR and GBP."We suspect that a USD-induced rally is likely to run roughshod through the lower-yielding G10 currencies.This mostly reflects the likes of the EUR, GBP, CHF, though JPY is expected to...
EUR/USD: Neutral (since 05 Mar 18, 1.2335): Pressure shifts to the downside, expect further weakness to 1.2212.We highlighted last Friday that the near-term bias is “tilted to the downside but any weakness is viewed as part of a 1.2260/1.2400 sideway trading range instead of...
TD Research discusses GBP outlook and keeps flagging near-term downside risks, noticing that GBP continues to lag the broader G10, as the soggy CPI data and some negative Brexit headlines have inspired some position squaring."We think this squeeze has some room to go, which reflects...
EUR/USD: Neutral (since 05 Mar 18, 1.2335): Upward pressure dented but another attempt towards 1.2400 is not ruled out.The release of ECB’s minutes yesterday sent EUR tumbling to a low of 1.2298. The ‘key support’ highlighted at 1.2280 in recent updates is still intact...
Hawkish Bundesbank chief Weidmann could generate momentum for a EUR/USD break through 1.2400 when he gives a lecture about the euro zone's currency union in Berlin at 1615GMT.Weidmann is the leading candidate to succeed Draghi as ECB president in November 2019, although picking him...
GBP/USD: Neutral (since 07 Mar 18, 1.3895): GBP has moved into a sideways trading mode.Despite the surprisingly strong rebound in GBP last Friday, we continue to view the price action as part of a ‘sideway trading’ phase. That said, the previously expected 1.3935/1.4100 consolidation range...
Danske Research discusses EUR/USD outlook in relation to the recent trade wars developments between the US and China.Two scenarios for the US-China trade conflict. We are now entering a crucial phase in the trade conflict with heightened uncertainty as to what will happen next."1- Our...
EUR/USD: Neutral (since 05 Mar 18, 1.2335): Weakened undertone increases risk of a deeper pull-back.We have held a neutral stance for about a month now and since then; EUR has been trading within a relatively narrow 1.2237/1.2476 range. That said, shorter-term price action has...
A softening of NAFTA worries has supported the CAD of late and it could get a Q2 boost if the North American Free Trade Agreement can be renegotiated before a July 1 presidential election in Mexico.Agreeing a NAFTA deal will cement expectations of a...
BTMU Research discusses EUR/USD outlook, and note that price action in the foreign exchange market recently highlights for sure the potential benefits of holding the EUR in these uncertain times in the financial markets.However, BTMU sees the greatest risk of this low euro volatility coming to an...
EUR/USD: Neutral (since 05 Mar 18, 1.2335): Still neutral, back in a consolidation phase.EUR continues to trade a muted manner last Friday and the recent mild downward pressure has eased. We previously expected EUR to move lower and test the strong 1.2200 support but this...
Bank of America Merrill Lynch FX Strategy Research discusses GBP outlook, going into the BoE meeting on Thursday."We expect the Bank of England (BoE) to stay hawkish at Thursday's policy meeting. We still assume the BoE will hike rates in May and it will continue...
EUR/USD: Neutral (since 05 Mar 18, 1.2335): EUR is expected to move lower and test the strong 1.2200 support.EUR edged to a low of 1.2256 before staging a surprisingly strong rebound. However, as highlighted yesterday (19 Mar, spot at 1.2285), only a move back above...
Societe Generale Cross Asset Strategy Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and maintains its bullish medium-term bias over the coming months, advising strategic EUR bulls need to be patient in order to navigate more choppy price action ahead."EUR/USD 1.2450 is still a barrier to a break higher for...
Barclays Research discusses the expectations for the SNB policy meeting on Thursday."We expect the SNB to keep its policy rate unchanged at -0.75% (consensus: - 0.75%) and the target range for 3m Libor at -1.25/-0.25%. In addition, we envision no changes to the exemption from...
BTMU Research discusses USD/CAD outlook, and notes that that its valuation model based on the higher price of oil alone suggests that USD/CAD should currently be trading closer to the 1.2000-level rather than the 1.3000-level."At the current juncture, we still expect NAFTA talks to make further progress...
EUR/USD: Neutral (since 05 Mar 18, 1.2335): Pressure shifted back to the downside but expect strong support at 1.2220.EUR hit a ‘fresh’ low of 1.2271 last Friday but rebounded to close almost unchanged for the day. We continue to hold the view that the immediate...
Danske Research discusses EUR/USD outlook in light of today's ECB meeting, and notes that the overall implication was a knee-jerk reaction, with the softish language driving yields and the EUR reversing lower."Despite some brief comments on the challenges arising from a stronger currency, we...
EUR/USD: Neutral (since 05 Mar 18, 1.2335): EUR strength has room to extend further towards 1.2500.When we turned neutral two days ago (05 Mar, spot at 1.2335), we viewed EUR’s strength as a ‘correction’ but were of the view that the immediate bias is...
NAB Research discusses NZD/USD technical outlook, and adopts a bearish bias targeting 0.7144 initially ahead of 0.6800."NZD/USD tested but failed to overcome multi-year range highs, producing a double top at 0.7437/38 in 2018. The subsequent negative momentum shift places ST momentum indicators at new 2018...
ANZ Research discusses AUD/USD outlook in light of revising down its forecasts to 0.76 in June, 0.74 in September, and 0.72 by year-end."Domestic factors will not move around enough to drive any significant moves in the AUD, leaving it vulnerable to global risk appetite.  On...
Societe Generale Cross Asset Strategy Research discusses EUR/USD, and EUR/GBP outlook and maintains its view that further dips should provide good buying opportunity."We'd rather buy at 1.22 than here, we are setting up for a re-test of highs in the next week or two...
BTMU Research discusses USD/JPY outlook, and maintains a bearish bias around current levels seeing the pair is likely to trade in the lower end of 105.50.108.50 range in the near-term."Both Japanese and foreign investors have reduced their risk positions considerably this month...Globally, bonds are being...
EUR/USD:  Neutral (since 06 Feb 18, 1.2375): Outlook for EUR is negative, odds for further weakness to 1.2204 have increased.EUR traded within a surprisingly narrow range of 1.2278/1.2337 last Friday; the 59 pips is the smallest 1-day range since late December. Nevertheless, we continue...
BNP Paribas Research discusses USD/JPY outlook, and notes that its recent decline looks likely to mirror EUR/USD upward price action in 2017 in terms of the correlations' breakdown with yields spreads, which points to the possibility of further USD/JPY weakness over the coming months."The breakdown in...
Bank of America Merrill Lynch Research discusses GBP/USD outlook ahead of the targeted deadline for reaching a deal on transition on 22nd/23rd March, the date of the EU Leaders’ Summit."Two main forces are driving the GBP, the BoE and the Brexit transition deal, and they are...
Barclays Research discusses USD/JPY outlook and notes that market positioning suggests further downside risks to USD/JPY."Speculative short JPY positions are still large, according to CFTC data, and retail Japanese investors trading margin FX have bought into the USDJPY decline since early January in their typical contrarian...
BTMU Research discusses USD/JPY outlook and maintains a bearish bias on the pair in the near-term, seeing 108.50 capping any upside. "Near-term, Japanese JPY selling to generate enough cash for overseas investing may support the lower bound of USDJPY. But once USDJPY drops below the 105 level,...
Danske Bank Research discusses the USD outlook in light of its price action post yesterday's stronger-than-expected US CPI and thinks that is testament to negative bias on USD in the market with the outlook for significant widening of the US public deficit."The downwards pressure on USD is...
BTNU Research discusses USD/JPY outlook as the JPY out-performance continues making the currency the best performing G10 currency on a year-to-date basis."So there is certainly a yen specific story here and the shift in risk tolerance and the increased appetite for hedging risk asset exposure...