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eFXnews is the source for high-end foreign exchange, central bank & global currency trading research.
Euro Currency
Barclays Capital FX Strategy Research discusses its EUR/USD outlook going into 2018, expecting a flat profile around 1.17 level into Q1 of next year before breaking higher towards the 1.20 level in Q2. "The EUR's gains will likely remain supported by solid euro area growth, but much further gains are capped,...
US Dollar Japanese Yen
NAB FX Strategy Research discusses USD/JPY outlook and remains cautiously optimistic retaining its view for USD/JPY to end the year closer to 116, but thinks the near term outlook remains somewhat challenging. "Technicals are currently bearish, with a series of lower highs recorded last week and several attempts to move above ¥114...
Barclays
Barclays Capital FX Strategy Research discusses GBP/USD outlook, arguing that Sterling faces symmetric risks after last week's sell-off. "The gyrations of domestic politics in the UK will likely add downside risks to GBP this week, with the cabinet reshuffles in Westminster taking centre stage. On the other hand, however, the market reaction to the...
Euro Dollar Currency
Bank of America Merrill Lynch FX Strategy Research maintains its bearish EUR/USD outlook, noticing that the October range/right shoulder breakdown suggests EUR/USD should decline towards 1.1320. "The range breakdown also broke the neckline of a larger head and shoulders top, onfirming spot could decline further. Note the 200d SMA is rising towards the...
Australian Dollar British Pound Currency
Nomura FX Strategy Research discusses GBP outlook in light of Sterling's decline in reaction to yesterday's BoE decision. "The BoE’s communications were in line with our expectations, but the market reaction was in the wrong way and moved much more than what would make sense to us.  While we may disagree with the...
Canadian Dollar
CIBC Research argues that CAD is an attractive sell targeting a move in USD/CAD around 1.33 y end of Q1 of 2018. "The Canadian dollar is still mispriced. Too many factors are pointing in unison to one direction—a lower loonie," CIBC argues. 1- "First, the full cent drop in the currency following the...
Euro Currency
Danske Bank FX Strategy Research discusses EUR/USD outlook after today's ECB meeting and ahead of next week's FOMC meeting. "Overall, the dovish tapering message from the ECB today cements our sense that EUR/USD is range bound (1.19-1.16) on a 1-3M horizon with risks tilted a tad to the downside near term. Notably, if...
Canadian Dollar
CIBC FX Strategy Research argues that market positioning points to an upcoming selloff in CAD. "Long positions in the currency have been built up to their highest levels since 2012 on the assumption that the past two rapid-fire rate hikes were indicative of the future path of tightening. Look for a wind...
New Zealand Dollar Currency NZD
Bank of America Merrill Lynch FX Strategy Research notes that its latest proprietary flows show officials selling the USD again last week, after having stopped the two weeks before. In addition, BofAML notes that its flows suggest more downside risk for NZD. "Despite some hedge fund demand, strong real money NZD selling continues,...
Australian Dollar Currency
NAB FX Technical Strategy Research maintains its bullish bias on AUD/USD arguing that from a price perspective the positive outlook that have been identified in recent months remains in play. "Additional bullish confirmation will be achieved with  a monthly close above the 50-month MA at 0.8008. Momentum bias has turned against the...
Great British Pound Currency
Nomura FX Strategy Research argues that for GBP traders in the short to medium term, the market will be more focused on Theresa May’s future, what the EU says on Brexit in October and then what the BoE decides in November for the direction of GBP trades. "Theresa May’s speech in...
Canadian Dollar
CIBC FX Strategy Research notes that the CAD has weakened further against the USD as of late but the move continues to mainly reflect improved sentiment in the US rather than a worsening mood on Canada. "Two-year yields in Canada, which tracked the C$ stronger since mid-year, haven’t come down much...
Swiss Franc
Credit Agricole CIB FX Strategy Research expects CHF to remain a main victim of the global divergence trade with the SNB staying comfortable with its accommodative policy stance. "We expect the CHF to remain subject to downside risks, in particular against the EUR. Given little scope of the SNB considering a change...
Bank of Canada
CIBC Research comments on today's speech by BoC Governor Poloz. "In a speech to a St John's audience, the BoC head highlighted that he's aiming to proceed "cautiously" with more hikes, despite what's been more aggressive pricing from the market and what was perceived as a hawkish September statement. That's because...
Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Citi Research notes that expects NZD to remain capped into this week's RBNZ policy decision on Thursday (NZ local time). "The central bank may reiterate that its monetary policy to remain accommodative for a considerable time. The RBNZ is unlikely to hike rates earlier next year and may not do so until...
Canadian Dollar
TD FX Strategy Research notes that the USD price action post-FOMC likely reflects that the market was looking for the Fed to scrap from the dots a rate hike this year or next. "The Fed delivered the opposite and in turn preserves its optionality to hike in Dec if the...
US Dollar Currency
Bank of America Merrill Lynch FX Strategy Research expects the FOMC September statement to imply that the Fed is a bit more upbeat about the risks to inflation and growth, however, BofAML does not expect the dots to move, maintaining the expectation of three hikes this year (December hike).  "Market participants...
Great British Pound Currency
Credit Agricole CIB FX Strategy Research recommends buying any GBP dip post-BoE for the following reasons. Firstly, the BoE stance could continue to support the market expectations about a potential BoE hike. Secondly, expectations that PM May would soften her stance on Brexit could grow ahead of the Tori party conference in October. Thirdly, GBP continues...
Swiss Franc
ING FX Strategy Research notes that the highlight for CHF traders this week will be Thursday's SNB meeting. "Expect the SNB to fan the flames of divergence between itself and the ECB, allowing rate spreads to widen and EUR/CHF to strengthen. The SNB still thinks the CHF is overvalued, whether it...
Euro Dollar
Barclays Capital FX Strategy Research notes that at its policy meeting last week, the ECB confirmed that changes to its QE program will likely be announced in October, but disappointed expectations for a possible change to the asymmetry of its asset purchase intentions. "The market is currently pricing only about 14bp within the...
Euro Currency
Danske Bank Research comments on EUR/USD reaction to today's ECB September policy statement. "The FX market bought the pair on ECB’s more positive assessment of economic growth this year and the signals that an announcement on monetary policy awaits in October. However, at the press conference Draghi made an effort to cap...
US Dollar Currency
Nomura FX Strategy Research continues to believe that the broad trend in the USD will be lower. Nomura outlines 3 key reasons behind this view.  "1- The dollar weakness we have seen so far this year has been driven by more than just declining US yields. 2- Current accounts matter too – the US appears to...
US Dollar Japanese Yen
Bank of America Merrill Lynch FX Strategy Research still expects the USD/JPY to rise into year-end but the top-heavy market may persist for now as tensions over US politics and the North Korean situation may deepen into September. "Our technical analysis sees potential downside into 106.52. Under such a scenario, Japanese investors are...
Australian Dollar Currency
Credit Agricole CIB FX Strategy Research argues the there are political risks ahead for AUD and NZD that are currently under-priced by markets. "Australian High Court ruling in October threatens to trigger a byelection that would place the government’s one-seat majority in jeopardy. While the outcome of this ruling may generate some shortterm...
New Zealand Dollar Currency NZD
Bank of America Merrill Lynch FX Strategy Research notes that commodity currency performance within G10 has varied and this will likely lead to the following outcomes: 1- "We believe CAD strength will become a bigger concern for the Bank of Canada with the trade balance deteriorating sharply and have recommended buying...
Canadian Dollar
Credit Agricole CIB FX Strategy Research notes that the NAFTA talks are off to a difficult start as the US delegation reportedly requested to remove the chapter 19 dispute settlement provisions that are a key issue for Canada. "Furthermore, President Trump has put verbal pressure on the negotiations by publicly expressing doubts...
SWISS FRANC
Credit Agricole CIB FX Strategy Research argues that EUR/CHF faces limited downside risks from current levels on the ground that rising safe-haven demand could trigger renewed fears of currency intervention. From that angle, CACAIB believes that any recent EUR/CHF downside should be treated as corrective rather than a change in trend. "This is especially true given...
Japanese Yen
Bank of America Merrill Lynch Technical FX Strategy Research notes that the uptrend in EUR/JPY continues to stumble when attempting to make a weekly close through the 200wk SMA. "It has come close on multiple occasions and failed, and so a tactical top may be forming. The uptrend has not corrected...
Euro Currency
Credit Suisse FX Technical Strategy Research notes that EUR/GBP has seen a strong rally since April this year and has reinforced a large base set above .8852 to achieve the next target at the November 2016 high at .9050. "The extension above here keeps the risks directly higher for the...
Canadian Dollar
CIBC FX Strategy Research notes that the GDP growth in the US and Canada is always highly correlated so when they diverge, FX moves often help to bring growth rates closer together again. "Based on policymakers’ own sensitivities to the moves in FX recently, alongside the turn to hiking by...

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