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eFXnews is the source for high-end foreign exchange, central bank & global currency trading research.
Canadian Dollar
TD FX Strategy Research notes that the USD price action post-FOMC likely reflects that the market was looking for the Fed to scrap from the dots a rate hike this year or next. "The Fed delivered the opposite and in turn preserves its optionality to hike in Dec if the...
US Dollar Currency
Bank of America Merrill Lynch FX Strategy Research expects the FOMC September statement to imply that the Fed is a bit more upbeat about the risks to inflation and growth, however, BofAML does not expect the dots to move, maintaining the expectation of three hikes this year (December hike).  "Market participants...
Great British Pound Currency
Credit Agricole CIB FX Strategy Research recommends buying any GBP dip post-BoE for the following reasons. Firstly, the BoE stance could continue to support the market expectations about a potential BoE hike. Secondly, expectations that PM May would soften her stance on Brexit could grow ahead of the Tori party conference in October. Thirdly, GBP continues...
Swiss Franc
ING FX Strategy Research notes that the highlight for CHF traders this week will be Thursday's SNB meeting. "Expect the SNB to fan the flames of divergence between itself and the ECB, allowing rate spreads to widen and EUR/CHF to strengthen. The SNB still thinks the CHF is overvalued, whether it...
Euro Dollar
Barclays Capital FX Strategy Research notes that at its policy meeting last week, the ECB confirmed that changes to its QE program will likely be announced in October, but disappointed expectations for a possible change to the asymmetry of its asset purchase intentions. "The market is currently pricing only about 14bp within the...
Euro Currency
Danske Bank Research comments on EUR/USD reaction to today's ECB September policy statement. "The FX market bought the pair on ECB’s more positive assessment of economic growth this year and the signals that an announcement on monetary policy awaits in October. However, at the press conference Draghi made an effort to cap...
US Dollar Currency
Nomura FX Strategy Research continues to believe that the broad trend in the USD will be lower. Nomura outlines 3 key reasons behind this view.  "1- The dollar weakness we have seen so far this year has been driven by more than just declining US yields. 2- Current accounts matter too – the US appears to...
US Dollar Japanese Yen
Bank of America Merrill Lynch FX Strategy Research still expects the USD/JPY to rise into year-end but the top-heavy market may persist for now as tensions over US politics and the North Korean situation may deepen into September. "Our technical analysis sees potential downside into 106.52. Under such a scenario, Japanese investors are...
Australian Dollar Currency
Credit Agricole CIB FX Strategy Research argues the there are political risks ahead for AUD and NZD that are currently under-priced by markets. "Australian High Court ruling in October threatens to trigger a byelection that would place the government’s one-seat majority in jeopardy. While the outcome of this ruling may generate some shortterm...
New Zealand Dollar Currency NZD
Bank of America Merrill Lynch FX Strategy Research notes that commodity currency performance within G10 has varied and this will likely lead to the following outcomes: 1- "We believe CAD strength will become a bigger concern for the Bank of Canada with the trade balance deteriorating sharply and have recommended buying...
Canadian Dollar
Credit Agricole CIB FX Strategy Research notes that the NAFTA talks are off to a difficult start as the US delegation reportedly requested to remove the chapter 19 dispute settlement provisions that are a key issue for Canada. "Furthermore, President Trump has put verbal pressure on the negotiations by publicly expressing doubts...
SWISS FRANC
Credit Agricole CIB FX Strategy Research argues that EUR/CHF faces limited downside risks from current levels on the ground that rising safe-haven demand could trigger renewed fears of currency intervention. From that angle, CACAIB believes that any recent EUR/CHF downside should be treated as corrective rather than a change in trend. "This is especially true given...
Japanese Yen
Bank of America Merrill Lynch Technical FX Strategy Research notes that the uptrend in EUR/JPY continues to stumble when attempting to make a weekly close through the 200wk SMA. "It has come close on multiple occasions and failed, and so a tactical top may be forming. The uptrend has not corrected...
Euro Currency
Credit Suisse FX Technical Strategy Research notes that EUR/GBP has seen a strong rally since April this year and has reinforced a large base set above .8852 to achieve the next target at the November 2016 high at .9050. "The extension above here keeps the risks directly higher for the...
Canadian Dollar
CIBC FX Strategy Research notes that the GDP growth in the US and Canada is always highly correlated so when they diverge, FX moves often help to bring growth rates closer together again. "Based on policymakers’ own sensitivities to the moves in FX recently, alongside the turn to hiking by...
TD Research notes that after carving out a base around 1.2414, USD/CAD has been gradually inching higher. "We think the move has some more room to run given that much of the good news is priced into CAD. For one thing, CAD remains sensitive to a shift in growth momentum. ...Trend followers...
US Dollar Japanese Yen
Barclays Capital FX Strategy Research argues that the path of USD/JPY is likely to depend on the durability of the ongoing global cyclical recovery and whether foreign central banks fulfill their hawkish shift in communication by action. We continue to look for medium-term JPY appreciation, given the extended undervaluation of the JPY despite...
Euro Currency
Nordea FX Strategy Research argues that despite being long-term optimists on EUR/USD, the strong recent momentum of the pair has been surprising. "A lot of good news should already be in the price for the EUR, just as most bad news should be in the price for the USD (this...
Swiss Franc
Credit Agricole CIB FX Strategy Research expects the CHF to remain under pressure especially against the EUR in the near-term. "We expect the SNB to do its utmost to keep monetary policy expectations strongly capped. Given the ECB’s more hawkish policy stance, all of the above suggests that there is additional room of diverging monetary...
Great British Pound Currency Euro
At next week's BoE August policy meeting, Danske Research expects the central bank to vote 6-2 in favor of keeping the Bank Rate unchanged against 5-3 on the previous occasion. "The reason is mainly because Kristin Forbes, a known hawk voting for a hike, has left the committee and we do not...
Euro Currency
Danske Bank Research comments on today's July FOMC policy statement. "As expected, the Fed maintained the target rate at 1.00%-1.25%. As this was a small meeting without updated projections and a press conference, focus was solely on the statement. However, the statement was without any big changes as per usual. One change in...
Canadian Dollar
BNP Paribas FX Strategy Research notes heading into June, the market consensus was that, with Canada operating under a large output gap, policy tightening would likely be unnecessary for some time – even as the economy grew at or above trend. However, BNPP notes that the BoC’s message changed significantly...
Canadian Dollar
CIBC FX Strategy Research argues that while CAD strength could extend towards a temporarily closing in on 1.25, it will also be a key factor in sending the BoC to the sidelines, letting a Fed hike in December re-widen interest margins in favor of the USD. "In the past, the BoC has signaled...
US Dollar Japanese Yen
BTMU FX Strategy Research argues notes that Japanese investors repatriating revenue and exporters buying JPY could continue to support a USDJPY drop in mid-July. "Such moves would not be risk-off moves, but support JPY appreciation positively. Yellen has not been very dovish and Japanese investors may support the lower bound of...
US Dollar Currency Yen
NAB FX Strategy Research outlines 3 scenario analysis into its USD/JPY model that estimates fair value (fv) targets based on movements in 10y USTs, gold and the Nikkei.  1- "Leaving gold and the Nikkei unchanged and 10y UST at 2.75% (our end year forecast) sees USD/JPY rising to ¥119. 2- An extreme risk off scenario...
Canadian Dollar
TD Research continues to maintain its call that the BoC will leave rates on hold at this week’s meeting. "We still think it is likely to be a much closer call than current market pricing suggests and look for the Bank to deliver a hawkish hold instead of a 25bp rate...
Great British Pound Currency
Barclays Capital FX Strategy Research notes that the recent hawkish stance of the BoE following Governor Carney’s speech last week come could likely be an attempt by the central bank to defend the credibility of GBP. "We had long expected the BoE’s MPC members to support the currency by means of an eventual...
Canadian Dollar
Nomura FX Strategy Research base case is now for the BoC to raise interest rates by 25bp at its 12 July meeting, followed by another hike by December. "The post-oil shock “insurance” of looser policy settings is no longer needed, in our view," Nomura argues. "We remain positive on CAD over the medium...
Euro Currency
Barclays Capital FX Strategy Research expects the EUR to face some roadblocks and holds a base case for EUR/USD to range trade. "We believe that the ECB, with a still significant output gap and the benefit of having seen how the inflation story has played out thus far in the...
Great British Pound Currency
CIBC FX Strategy Research notes that GBP/USD continues to flirt with the 1.30 threshold, well above the levels that were feared in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote just over a year ago. "However, that’s still not a particularly good performance, with much of the recent pick-up due to US$...

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