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eFXnews is the source for high-end foreign exchange, central bank & global currency trading research.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch Research dissects time zone analysis to identify dominant geographic regions for all USD, EUR and JPY G10 pairs."When in Rome, do as the Romans do: follow the dominant local trend...US locals are bullish USD and bearish CAD. UK locals...
NAB Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and maintains a neutral bias over the coming months."Given the potential economic effect of tariffs on EU car exports (particularly on Germany), it is unlikely the EUR can make a sustained break outside of the recent 1.15-1.1875 range it...
Bank of America Merrill Lynch Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and maintains a sell-on-rallies strategy."We remain bearish EURUSD and would sell any rallies. Looking ahead, we expect relative data, trade policy and developments in Italy to be the main EURUSD drivers.The ECB has effectively took itself...
Danske Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and maintains a tactical bearish bias, expecting the pair to retest its last week's low around 1.1510."We still think the bottom is ahead in the cross on USD backing from the current carry and cyclical environment for now. However, EUR/USD longs...
CIBC Research discusses USD/JPY outlook and adopts a structural bearish bias targeting the cross at 104 by year-end.With USDJPY well linked to government bond spreads in the last two years, the yen should be a beneficiary of any upward pressure on JGBs emanating from a less-dovish tone...
SEB Research discusses its reaction to today's FOMC minutes from the May policy meeting."The minutes confirm that the Fed has become more confident that inflation will remain close to or above target but provide no clear indication that the Fed is about to step up...
Barclays Research discusses EUR/USD outlook in light of the latest Italian political developments."The Italian political situation and its effect on BTPs and other EA peripheral bond markets will likely be the single most important driver for the EUR this week.While our rates strategists do not...
Credit Agricole Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and thinks that the cross is inching closer to an attractive medium-term buying opportunity as positioning looks to be shifting towards balanced territory. "Looking ahead, in our view, any currency downside from current levels should prove to be limited, not...
Societe Generale Cross Asset Strategy Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and notes that the net euro long hadn't corrected enough to give a committed euro dip-buyer any encouragement at all."Nor does the Bund market. EUR/USD has been tracking Bunds more than relative yields or relative short...
AUD/USD: Bearish (02 May 18, 0.7485): Target a move to 0.7410.We just shifted to a bearish stance yesterday (02 May, spot at 0.7485) and there is no change to the view. The ‘target’ remains unchanged at 0.7410 even though 0.7440 is quite a strong shorter-term...
CIBC Research discusses the reaction to today's BoC Poloz speech."The speech still leaves us expecting that the economy requires further removal of stimulus, albeit at a very gradual pace.With Governor Poloz indicating that the economy still isn't reflecting the full effects of the past three...
BTMU Research discusses GBP/USD outlook in light of changing its BoE rate call to no hike in May."That change in view on the back of the GDP data is already now close to the consensus. Market probability of a rate hike has gone from 90%...
TD Research discusses the USD outlook and maintains a tactical bullish bias especially EUR and GBP."We suspect that a USD-induced rally is likely to run roughshod through the lower-yielding G10 currencies.This mostly reflects the likes of the EUR, GBP, CHF, though JPY is expected to...
EUR/USD: Neutral (since 05 Mar 18, 1.2335): Pressure shifts to the downside, expect further weakness to 1.2212.We highlighted last Friday that the near-term bias is “tilted to the downside but any weakness is viewed as part of a 1.2260/1.2400 sideway trading range instead of...
TD Research discusses GBP outlook and keeps flagging near-term downside risks, noticing that GBP continues to lag the broader G10, as the soggy CPI data and some negative Brexit headlines have inspired some position squaring."We think this squeeze has some room to go, which reflects...
EUR/USD: Neutral (since 05 Mar 18, 1.2335): Upward pressure dented but another attempt towards 1.2400 is not ruled out.The release of ECB’s minutes yesterday sent EUR tumbling to a low of 1.2298. The ‘key support’ highlighted at 1.2280 in recent updates is still intact...
Hawkish Bundesbank chief Weidmann could generate momentum for a EUR/USD break through 1.2400 when he gives a lecture about the euro zone's currency union in Berlin at 1615GMT.Weidmann is the leading candidate to succeed Draghi as ECB president in November 2019, although picking him...
GBP/USD: Neutral (since 07 Mar 18, 1.3895): GBP has moved into a sideways trading mode.Despite the surprisingly strong rebound in GBP last Friday, we continue to view the price action as part of a ‘sideway trading’ phase. That said, the previously expected 1.3935/1.4100 consolidation range...
Danske Research discusses EUR/USD outlook in relation to the recent trade wars developments between the US and China.Two scenarios for the US-China trade conflict. We are now entering a crucial phase in the trade conflict with heightened uncertainty as to what will happen next."1- Our...
EUR/USD: Neutral (since 05 Mar 18, 1.2335): Weakened undertone increases risk of a deeper pull-back.We have held a neutral stance for about a month now and since then; EUR has been trading within a relatively narrow 1.2237/1.2476 range. That said, shorter-term price action has...
A softening of NAFTA worries has supported the CAD of late and it could get a Q2 boost if the North American Free Trade Agreement can be renegotiated before a July 1 presidential election in Mexico.Agreeing a NAFTA deal will cement expectations of a...
BTMU Research discusses EUR/USD outlook, and note that price action in the foreign exchange market recently highlights for sure the potential benefits of holding the EUR in these uncertain times in the financial markets.However, BTMU sees the greatest risk of this low euro volatility coming to an...
EUR/USD: Neutral (since 05 Mar 18, 1.2335): Still neutral, back in a consolidation phase.EUR continues to trade a muted manner last Friday and the recent mild downward pressure has eased. We previously expected EUR to move lower and test the strong 1.2200 support but this...
Bank of America Merrill Lynch FX Strategy Research discusses GBP outlook, going into the BoE meeting on Thursday."We expect the Bank of England (BoE) to stay hawkish at Thursday's policy meeting. We still assume the BoE will hike rates in May and it will continue...
EUR/USD: Neutral (since 05 Mar 18, 1.2335): EUR is expected to move lower and test the strong 1.2200 support.EUR edged to a low of 1.2256 before staging a surprisingly strong rebound. However, as highlighted yesterday (19 Mar, spot at 1.2285), only a move back above...
Societe Generale Cross Asset Strategy Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and maintains its bullish medium-term bias over the coming months, advising strategic EUR bulls need to be patient in order to navigate more choppy price action ahead."EUR/USD 1.2450 is still a barrier to a break higher for...
Barclays Research discusses the expectations for the SNB policy meeting on Thursday."We expect the SNB to keep its policy rate unchanged at -0.75% (consensus: - 0.75%) and the target range for 3m Libor at -1.25/-0.25%. In addition, we envision no changes to the exemption from...
BTMU Research discusses USD/CAD outlook, and notes that that its valuation model based on the higher price of oil alone suggests that USD/CAD should currently be trading closer to the 1.2000-level rather than the 1.3000-level."At the current juncture, we still expect NAFTA talks to make further progress...
EUR/USD: Neutral (since 05 Mar 18, 1.2335): Pressure shifted back to the downside but expect strong support at 1.2220.EUR hit a ‘fresh’ low of 1.2271 last Friday but rebounded to close almost unchanged for the day. We continue to hold the view that the immediate...
Danske Research discusses EUR/USD outlook in light of today's ECB meeting, and notes that the overall implication was a knee-jerk reaction, with the softish language driving yields and the EUR reversing lower."Despite some brief comments on the challenges arising from a stronger currency, we...