Summer is hotter than we currently enjoy, and the thermometer’s mercury fiber has a good chance of constantly crawling up to 40 degrees Celsius. With current CO2 emissions, all of these could become commonplace in the UK by 2100, according to a new study from the British Meteorological Service. However, the weather does not know the borders of the country, so the impact of this event is felt not only by the inhabitants of the island country, but exclusively.
The highest temperature ever measured was 38.7 degrees Celsius
Island Weather Service, Meeting Office In a study now published, it predicts serious risks. It draws attention to the hot summers of the coming decades, which could become the norm in the UK by the end of the century, the news agency reported. Scientific warning Science online portal. Using temperature data and climate sample simulations, the researchers studied how the island’s temperature could exceed 30, 35 and 40 degrees Celsius every summer for the next 80 years. It has been found that if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, temperatures could reach 40 degrees Celsius by 2100.
Over the past two summers, many parts of Britain and Europe have been hit by unusual heat, and scientists have warned that they are putting too much pressure on the body. So according to meteorological office researchers, it becomes clear
These hot summers are partly responsible for the greenhouse gases coming from human activities.
The highest temperature ever recorded in the UK was 38.7 degrees Celsius, which was recorded in Cambridge last July; In the UK alone, 2,000 people die from heat-related illnesses each year.
The possibility of extreme heat days in the UK is increasing, and will remain the same throughout this century, with very high temperatures expected in the southeast of the UK. “ The researchers wrote Nature Communications In their study published in the journal.
Although traditionally summer temperatures have adapted to warmer climates over time, they say the UK climate is “unable to handle this type of heat wave for some reason”.
How much heat waves are possible in the UK?
Scientists have designed four different climatic conditions to simulate different concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere: an imaginary “natural climate” that is unchanged by human activity, and two future climate scenarios. These new scenarios are called “representative concentration paths”.Representative concentration pathways) In short RCP. Based on these, they were interested, for example Can the world meet the ambitious emissions reduction target set in the 2015 Paris Agreement by reducing the global average temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century?
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has described the so-called RCB 4.5 as an intermediate scenario in which emissions will continue to rise until 2045, but by 2100 the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will be more than half that of 2050.
Under RCB 4.5, the global average temperature rise will be 2-3 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.
The worst case scenario is considered to be RCP 8.5, when emissions will continue to rise at current rates and will not decrease in the 21st century, so by 2100 the global average temperature rise will rise to 4.8 degrees Celsius.
Can reduce the chances of dangerous high temperatures
Global warming is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Temperatures above 35 degrees Celsius in the UK currently only occur every five years, according to a new study. But according to the IPCC’s Interim RCB 4.5, heat waves of this magnitude are expected to occur annually in the island nation.
Currently, temperatures anywhere in the UK are less likely to reach 40 degrees Celsius: they can occur around 100-350 per year.
However, as a function of carbon dioxide emissions this may change significantly by the end of the century, with heat waves of 30, 35, and 40 செல் C occurring frequently.
At the end of the century, the temperature will reach 40 degrees Celsius every 3.5 years, according to the worst emission conditions.
According to the most compact emission conditions, this occurs approximately every 15 years. The recently released study also points out that meeting the emission reduction targets set out in the Paris Climate Agreement will significantly reduce the chances of dangerous high temperatures.
Flows play an important role
Between 1960 and 2016, daytime temperatures in the south-east of the UK rose by 1 degree Celsius for a decade, at the same time Temperature changes in Scotland are very different: some areas are slightly warmer, while others are colder, a new study suggests.Overall, experts have found that Britain is one of the most important countries for temperature extremes; Its future climate will largely depend on how global warming affects the North Atlantic and, in particular, the North Atlantic running flow.
For example, a strong wind that rises in a high-altitude band follows the line between cold and hot air and controls the direction and strength of a growing storm.
The weather in the UK is severely affected.
So far, there are many questions surrounding the scenario so outlined, but experts say that it is certain that national borders are not known for extreme weather events.