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Fifty percent chance of crossing the 1.5-degree climate threshold in five years, the limit of irreversible change

Global Warming, Paris Agreement;

2022-05-11 17:07:00

Half the chance that we will exceed the limit set in 2015 at the Paris Climate Conference. In just five years, the temperature rise will be even higher.

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the chances of the average global temperature rise exceeding 1.5 degrees within five years are about fifty percent, and the chances of that rising year after year. “Our study shows – using the most advanced tools in science – that we are appreciably approaching the Paris climate steel minimum. 1.5 degrees is not a random statistic, but an indication of the point beyond which the effects become,” said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas. Climate change is more and more harmful to humans, in fact to the entire planet.”

According to the UK Met Office, a member of the organization that released the report, this was the first time in 2015 that global average temperatures were 1.02°C above between 1850 and 1900. That same year, world leaders pledged to sign the Paris climate agreement to do everything in their power to keep global warming from 1.5 degrees above the pre-industrial average. However, at the COP26 conference in Glasgow last December, leaders had already relaxed about climate steel, making it realistically achievable 2.4 degrees by the end of the century, well above the maximum of 2 degrees Celsius in Paris.

Over the past seven years, the warming has remained around 1 degree, but in 2016 and 2020, the record was warm, and the average high temperature has not been measured since the beginning of the record: in 2020, the surplus was 1.25 degrees compared to pre-industrial . revolution. This degree is responsible for massive wildfires in North America and intolerable heat waves in India and Pakistan.

The main finding of the new study is that between 2022 and 2026, the average temperature will be 1.1 to 1.7 degrees Celsius higher than it was before industrialization, and nearly one hundred percent that one year will be the warmest since records began. “The main reason for the change in the target is that the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is slowly sliding upwards,” explained Leon Hermansson, lead author of the study at the European Commission’s Met Office. At the same time, the authors emphasize that the fact that the value jumps above 1.5 degrees in one year and then goes down is not the same as staying there all the time, but you should not be complacent about it. “As long as we continue to emit greenhouse gases, the temperature will rise,” Taalas added. Research shows that warming will be more in the Arctic, with average temperatures three times higher in these regions over the next five years than in the rest of the world. Events in La Nina will only dampen warming temporarily, while El Nino will support growth. Thus, it is very likely that the year we hit the new heat record will be El Nino, just as 2016 was our hottest year yet.

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