As expected, incumbent President Emmanuel Macron and right-winger Marine Le Pen will enter the second round of the French presidential election. The first round was held today and the two leaderboards will advance to the second and final round. We are constantly updating our article.
It was possible to vote until 8 p.m. on Sunday, the first results based on polling measurements.
Since the Belgian media is not obligated to silence the French campaign, the first opinion polls were published at about 8:30 in the evening. According to them, Macron received 26% and Marine Le Pen 24%, which means that it will be decided between them next week who will be the French president. (By the way, Le Soir reported meticulous exit polls in 2017, even before the jar closed.) Because there’s an outside-the-margin difference between second-placed Marine Le Pen and third-place communist Jean-Luc Melenchon (having a maximum of 20%), So the Macron-Marine Le Pen fight can be guaranteed within two weeks.
The data published in the French media after 8 pm are also opinion polls, but they are also called results, since they have not been produced in France for decades on the basis of traditional opinion polls in other European countries, but on the basis of an expensive, very large sample.
Le Figaro reported 28% for Macron and 24% for Marine Le Pen at 8 p.m., citing Ifop research. Odoxa made little difference, but the point for them is that Macron-Marine Le Pen will be in the second round.
Interestingly, all polls came to 20% in Mélanchon, the best result measured by France’s far left. It is also interesting that Eric Zemmour, who has been a politician for five months (the world-renowned essayist announced he would run in December and then founded a movement), has outstripped the traditional centre-right candidate, Valerie Pecres. This is a serious achievement. Zemmour 8, Pécresse has 5%, according to Ifop. Thus, the left-turned Republican presidential candidate, Pecres, who also campaigned for the beautiful months he spent in the Soviet Union during the communist dictatorship, was disastrous.
Obviously a difference of one or two per cent will be revealed during the evening, but the point is absolutely certain: Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen made it to the last and second round.
A very important circumstance is that Marion Marechal, Eric Zemmour’s closest ally, announced that she would invite her followers to vote for Marine Le Pen in the second round. Later, Zemmour did it himself.
The second round on April 24 will be decided primarily by Jean-Luc Melenchon voters. Five years ago, Macron was voted overwhelmingly in the second round, but now communist Melenchon is far from having the support of leftists alone. More and more anti-globalization people are living in difficult conditions. Or, more precisely, they are. Although communist Melenchon has called on his supporters not to vote for Marine Le Pen, the question is how much she is worth in this case. Since Marine Le Pen’s program is more socially sensitive than Macron’s, leftist on immigration but ultra-liberal on taxes and social issues, it is easy for Melenchon supporters to turn more towards Marine Le Pen.
By the way, the center-right is already torn apart, Pecres announced that he will vote for Macron in the second round, while Eric Ciotti, the second most powerful man in the Republicans, said that he will not vote.
According to Le Figaro, Valérie Pécresse is at 4.7%, not fifth, ahead of the far left Green Yannick Jadot with 4.8%.
Marine Le Pen called on people to work together: everyone who had grown tired of Macron’s five years (hard to call success) asked them to vote for him.
At around 11 pm, Figaro posted a list very close to the end result. Accordingly, the 12 candidates achieved the following results:
Emmanuel Macron: 28.3%
Marine Le Pen: 23.6%
Jean-Luc Melenchon: 21.2%
Eric Zemmour: 7.2%
Yannick Gadot: 4.8%
Valerie Pecres: 4.7%
Jean LaSalle: 3.3%
Fabian Russell 2.5%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan: 1.8%
Ann Hidalgo: 1.7%
Philip Bhutto: 0.7%
Natalie Orthod: 0.6%
That is, representatives of the two traditional blocs achieved a shameful result: the LR candidate (Republicans) turned to the left, and Valerie Pecresse could not get past the psychological limit of 5%, the candidate of the traditional party. Left, PS (Socialists), Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo got 1.7%.
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