To see some opportunity for the regime’s decisive opposition to advance, the Iran-backed Shiite Hezbollah and its allies may be the real winners of the vote.
Is elite resentment stronger than intolerance toward traditional parties? Will the desire to renew the deteriorating system overcome public indifference? To what extent is the Sunni sect itself active in the absence of its political leader? – These are the main issues in Lebanon before the parliamentary elections on Sunday. To see some opportunity for the regime’s decisive opposition to advance, the Iran-backed Shiite Hezbollah and its allies may be the real winners of the vote.
The Lebanese are experiencing the worst economic crises of the past two centuries, and for the first time since the crisis began, voters have had the opportunity to express their opinions about a political elite that is widely seen as corrupt and inappropriate. The traditional parties have a lot at their expense: the crisis that has driven more than three-quarters of the population into poverty, the explosion in the Port of Beirut in 2020, and the fact that no one has been held responsible for the devastating 245 so far. injuries. However, it is doubtful that resentment will be able to ride on the independent candidates who have raised to their shields the demands of the anti-regime protests that erupted in October 2019 and then fizzled out due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Opposition runners have already been challenged to show themselves to the electorate. On several occasions, their campaign events were blocked by supporters of the traditional parties – aspirants and activists were regularly threatened and harassed. The press did not facilitate their affairs either: they did not have the opportunity to join the media associated with the political elite, and some devices, according to Al-Jazeera, were ready to cover them only for tens of thousands. dollar.
The machinations of traditional political forces hinder the chances of candidates who criticize the regime. Experts who speak to the London-based news portal The New Arab warn that there is also anti-decoration among the novices, whose sole job is to divide anti-voter voters.
Moreover, it is not certain that those who want change will go to the polls. According to reports, the anger at the anti-regime protests in 2019 appears to have been replaced by disappointment, with many finding the situation in Lebanon completely hopeless.
Conditions push the waters to traditional party mills that are able to set up and activate their camp together. However, one of the three poles of Lebanese politics is in a better position: the bloc that singled out the Christian Free Patriotic Movement, Hezbollah and also the Shiite Amal movements favored that the rival side, the Sunni Future Movement, boycotted the elections. . The party decided to do so after its leader, Saad Hariri, unexpectedly suspended his political career in January. Some analysts fear that because the former prime minister is removed from the background, Sunni Muslims will be excluded from Jarrar, so Hezbollah and its allies could get a two-thirds majority. This would strengthen Shiite Iran’s influence in Lebanon, which would destabilize the religiously and religiously divided country, and even the entire Middle East.
Whatever the outcome of the elections, the Lebanese are facing a painful period as they wait for the next government to get the country out of the hole and put the economy on a growth path. This is likely to require a rescue package from the International Monetary Fund, which is conditioned on the implementation of the long-awaited reforms.
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