The Chinese elite is convinced that the United States is on a path of irreversible decline. This was stated by Judd Blanchett, a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. If we look at what happened in the United States recently, especially regarding the election of Donald Trump as president in 2016, this view seems justified. A confident society would not raise a man who would lack the ability to consider himself as intelligent as the previous president.
On the other hand, if we shed the political surface, it turns out that the largest resource of the United States, its economy, is nowhere near in decline – Believes Martin Wolf, FT advertisement. For a century and a half, the United States was the most innovative economy in the world. He based his leadership of the world on this, so if we are to test the opinion of the Chinese elite, we need to ask if this has changed. The short answer is, it really doesn’t look like it.
Although exchanges do not give a perfect picture of companies, because investors can be influenced by many things about why they buy or sell shares of a company, in the long term they paint a relatively unbiased picture of companies. If we look at the listed companies that do not include the Chinese state-owned companies or the blockading telecommunications company Huawei, we see that at the end of April 2021, seven of the ten most valuable companies in the world were from the United States and 14 of the 20 best American companies. . Based in.
They take everything
With the exception of the Saudi oil giant Aramco, the five most valuable companies (Apple, Micosoft, Amazon, Alphabet, owner of Google and Facebook) are American companies. China ranked seventh in Tencent and ninth in Alibaba, both of which are technology giants like the first. If we look at this sector alone, we find that 12 of the top 20 are the United States, China with Hong Kong, Taiwan four, the Netherlands two (ASML and Prosus), and Germany and South Korea (SAP and Samsung).
In terms of life sciences and pharmaceuticals, there are actually seven European companies in the top 20, but the United States has seven in the top ten and 11 in the top 20. There is also an Australian and Japanese company on the scene, but no Chinese company. Based on this, we can say that American companies are dominant in this field, and non-affiliated companies are based in their allies.
The situation is similar to venture capital. According to Dealroom, a consultancy, between the first quarter of 2018-2021, $ 487 billion was invested in the United States, while a total of $ 379 billion was invested in China, the United Kingdom, India, Germany, France, Canada, Israel and Singapore. In comparison to GDP, only Israel and Singapore lead the United States in this area. China was the first country in 2019 to register new patents, with just over 59,000, and the United States ranked second with less than 58,000. However, in addition to these, there are only Friends of America in the top ten, with 175,000 patents filed with them.
Finally, it is helpful to include universities in the quantitative comparison. Among the top ten universities, there are five American universities, of which 10 out of 20 are that number, while only one Chinese university is among the best. Experts familiar with China believe that the situation could get worse as the Chinese political system grows hardened. This is because controlling society destroys independent thinking.
It was not pre-ordered
This picture does not show that the US economy will become irrelevant, especially if we consider its allies as well. China could be the largest economy in the world by any comparison, but it will not yet be the most productive and innovative society in the world. It may even magnify if central government control is strengthened.
Therefore, according to the propaganda in the British business newspaper, the biggest threat to the United States is not China, but itself. If you choose leaders who despise democracy, ethnic diversity, and the importance of allies in international relations, science, and rationality, you can embark on a downward path. The fact that American Republicans cannot get rid of Trom and everything that he represents includes that possibility.
Moreover, the Chinese elite is wrong to believe that their country is on the right path. Subjecting 1.4 billion thinkers to the control of politics does not promise a better future than the American model. It is no coincidence that the United States today attracts the most talented and ambitious people. The United States will be forced to share world control with China because China has a population four times its own, but if freedom, rule of law, and the opportunity to be rich remain its home, it can keep it first. Place. China could be the Eternal Second, which is an otherwise comfortable role.