#Analyst Corner

On Monday, New Zealand Dollar (NZD) jumped after Adrian Orr was appointed the new Central Bank Governor.Orr is an experienced central banker who has worked as the deputy governor and economist. Previously, he led the country’s $26 billion sovereign wealth fund.Investors were optimistic that he will be able to...
Nordea FX Strategy Research discusses EUR/USD outlook into year-end and warns of the possible negative impact on the pair from year-end liquidity shrink. "Basis swaps have been on the move recently, widening aggressively and making USD funding costlier. From now and until the end of this year the usage of the...
The Federal Reserve is odds-on to raise rates this week but that does not mean this is a dead meeting. The outlook for the future path of rates remains highly uncertain with the Fed itself wrangling over whether it can stick to at least three 25-basis-point increases next year.With...
The EUR/USD pair was so impressed by last Friday’s statistics on the US labor market, that it managed to update the low it had reached on November 20th. The reports were positive indeed. Of course, there were some nuances, but in general, the statistics was very good.So, the unemployment...
Oil is under pressure in  Asia after comments from Kuwait over the weekend.Oil continued its sideways consolidation on Friday, as both Brent and WTI rode the coattails of a general commodities rally to finish at 63.57 and 57.25 respectively. The picture has not been so bright this morning, as Kuwait’s...
European Commission to Recommend Moving onto Phase Two of Brexit Negotiations European equity markets are poised to open higher on Friday, buoyed by the news that the UK and the EU have come to an agreement on the three contentious issues that make up phase one of the Brexit negotiations.After...
TD FX Strategy Research discusses the USD outlook and argues that its recent gains are likely to be short-lived on possible reversal into the US jobs report on Friday."The $ has staged a modest rebound in the past few days, rallying against most of the G10 low-yielders....The trading signal is...
Bitcoin continued its staccato march skywards on Wednesday, with prices achieving fresh all-time highs above $12,600. At the moment the momentum traders are further fuelling the bubble with speculative longs but this could be about to change. What’s driving Bitcoin prices higher? Casting around for causes for these fresh gains, you...
Oil prices have recovered slightly in Europe but are far below the massive selloff levels from overnight, and the pain may not be over yet.Oil prices tanked overnight with Brent falling 2.20% and WTI 2.60%; their biggest one day falls in over a month. Both contracts were wobbling yesterday...
Societe Generale Cross Asset Strategy Research is out with its top FX trades for 2018 which includes 3 trades in spot (Long EUR/USD, Long AUD/NZD, and short USD/CAD). The 3 trades are structural-based that are meant to express SocGen's thematic views through the next 6 to 12 months.Long EUR/USD: "After a hiatus of...
The still heavy long positioning in the U.S. precious metals futures are about to have their metals tested if the charts are anything to go by.GoldLong-suffering bullish gold traders had more reason to worry overnight, as they looked up into the sky and saw the vultures circling over their positioning....
Nordea FX Strategy Research discusses EUR/USD outlook into year-end, and outlines 3 key reasons why the pair is still resilient and hasn't been traded significantly lower yet.1- Reason number one why EUR/USD trades at elevated levels still is the continued over-performance from European key figures compared to already lofty expectations...2- Secondly, the...
The OPEC’s November decision on the extension of the agreement, which establishes strict borders and limits for the oil extracting countries, was quite logical. The agreement has been extended at least until the end of 2018. So, the main question for the nearest future is how the OPEC is...
CIBC FX Strategy Research discusses NZD outlook, noticing that the post NZ election period has seen investors aggressively re-position their NZD bets."From a record long skew at the end of July, positions have unwound to such an extent that new shorts are nearing mid-2015 extremes. So it’s not surprising...
The USD/CAD lost 1.55 percent on Friday. The currency pair is trading at 1.2695 after the Canadian jobs number defied expectations with a 79,500 positions added in November. Monthly gross domestic product (GDP) came in higher at 0.2 percent but in fact confirmed the slowdown of the economy as...
Barclays Capital FX Strategy Research discusses USD/CAD outlook this week and notes that the market will be watching the outcome of the OPEC meeting on November 30 along with Canada's Q3 GDP and the November employment report which will be released on Friday."OPEC could disappoint market expectations and Canada’s...
The DAX index has posted strong gains in the Wednesday session. Currently, the DAX is at 13,190.00, up 1.00% on the day. On the release front, Germany releases Preliminary CPI, which is expected to accelerate to 0.3%. In the US, Preliminary GDP is expected to post a strong gain of...
At the end of November, the Euro is feeling very well. A remote possibility of creating a governing coalition in Germany and a strong report published by the European Central Bank supported the main currency pair while the United States of America was celebrating the Thanksgiving Day. The EUR/USD...
Both Brent and WTI crude continue to drift lower ahead of Thursday’s OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting in Vienna.The divergence in price behaviour between Brent and WTI continued overnight. Although both contracts fell, WTI had much the worse of it, falling 1.90% to 57.65 as the overbought technical indicators and the imminent...
TD FX Strategy Research discusses USD/CAD outlook in light of the downside surprise in Canada's retail sales report this week."In spite of the deceleration in data surprises in the past three months, the consensus expectations of Canadian growth has continued to inch higher. We suspect the market is likely to...
Oil trading shows signs of life in Asia trading with, WTI dropping on a higher Baker Hughes while Brent holds steady.The price action in crude diverged in Asia this morning with WTI falling 0.40% to 58.55 while Brent crude enjoyed a small 0.12% gain to 63.88. The difference in...
With USD-pairs having diverging looks we focused on specific set-ups in the group. The short-term picture in DXY is providing better clarity than the macro outlook. There are a couple of USD and cross-rate set-ups presently on the radar.Highlights:US Dollar Index (DXY) showing better short-term clarity USD/CAD on the cusp of breaking an...
Credit Agricole CIB FX Strategy Research discusses its USD/CAD outlook and making the case for staying tactically bullish CAD into year-end via maintaining a long USD/CAD position* from 1.2770, targeting a move to 1.2300, with a stop at 1.2925."The CAD has been caught between the movements of risk sentiment and...
Talking PointsFed minutes made dollar weaker Jamie Dimon bets on Trump’s one term of presidency Hammond delivered a poor budget ECB reviews corporate bond buyingEuropean markets are trading lower despite the fact that the German GDP YoY number matched the forecast of 2.3%. The German export number, the...
Revised UK GDP Figures Eyed as OBR Lowers ForecastsThe ONS will release second quarter GDP data for the UK this morning, which is expected to be unrevised from last month’s preliminary reading of 1.5%. If the OBR’s forecasts – as revealed by Chancellor Philip Hammond in yesterday’s Autumn –...
Keystone pipeline travails and a more substantial than expected drop in crude inventories saw crude gush higher in Asian trading.WTI races higher in Asian trading as TransCanada announced it would reduce shipments by 85% on its Keystone crude pipeline until the end of November. It is due to its attempts to...
The oil market has another reason to recover. At the beginning of last week, they were selling oil because there were rumors that Russia had no interest to extend the OPEC+ agreement, but at the end of it the price movement direction changed to the opposite. Saudi Arabia announced...
Nordea FX Strategy Research discusses EUR/USD outlook, and recommends that investors should consider establishing short positions on bounces into the 1.1850 level."We admit that there has been plenty of technical damage done to the dollar as evident in a DXY index below its uptrend and a EUR/USD breaking above its downtrend.But...
After starting the week with losses, the euro has settled down in the Tuesday session. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1734, down 0.00% on the day. In economic news, there are no eurozone indicators on the calendar. The US will release Existing Home Sales, with an estimate of 5.42...
Precious metals benefit from the street’s mass dollar exit on Friday with both gold and silver making pleasing technical developments. Gold Gold’s umbilical-like inverse price action to the U.S. dollar has been once again underlined on Friday. As the U.S. bowed before all and U.S. yields dropped, Gold rocketed higher and...

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