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Nordea FX Strategy Research discusses EUR/USD outlook into year-end and warns of the possible negative impact on the pair from year-end liquidity shrink. "Basis swaps have been on the move recently, widening aggressively and making USD funding costlier. From now and until the end of this year the usage of the...
Despite being pretty clear and logical, talks about the benchmark key rate increase in the USA in December are “haunting” some monetary politicians and investors. These doubts, which were mentioned in Patrick Harker’s comments below, put pressure upon the “sensitive” USD.Not long time ago, the FOMC member Patrick Harker...
From Donald Trump’s election to a failed coup attempt in Turkey, there have been plenty of political events to stoke volatility in the forex markets.Indeed of the top most volatile FX pairs the consistent theme is political uncertainty, muddy economic data and a sliding US dollar throughout 2017 that...
The GBP/USD pair has fallen to three weeks’ lows. Taking into account how fast the American currency has been strengthening this Autumn, one can really expect the trend to continue in the future.Over a short-period of time, the strong USD has easily sent the British Pound to the levels...
The Federal Open Market Committee faces a big test this week – can it announce the start of its balance sheet reduction operation without sparking something like a taper tantrum? This is one of the key meetings of the year as the monetary policy statement will be accompanied by...
Better be safe than sorry Bitcoin has been a key market for risk-off trading during the recent volatility spikesWhen markets are hard to predict, the smart money is always keen to play it safe. That’s exactly what “hedge your risk” was coined for. The current bull market traces...
Over the centuries, the United States dollar better known to traders as the USD, has emerged as the world’s most actively traded currency and the core of the global financial system. The evolution of the currency is long and storied.The USD has a history of over 240 years!1775Although the...
New Tory Minister Affirms ‘Hard Brexit’ Amid Waning SupportTalks of avoiding a hard Brexit are a fatal show of weakness for the United Kingdom, according to new Conservative minister Steve Baker, who insists there will be no compromise on Prime Minister Theresa May’s exit plan.Capitulating on Mrs. May’s hard...
The euro has been a star performer in 2017 and it looks like it could be set for further gains as we head into the second half of the year.Euro net long positions as recorded by the US Commodity and Futures Trading Commission jumped to their highest level in...
Brexit Negotiations: Day 1 RecapIt was said that Brexit negotiations were not about “punishment” or “revenge”, but the talks between Chief European Union (EU) negotiator Michael Barnier and the UK’s Brexit Negotiator David Davis did look a lot like kicking a man while he is down.After an initial exchange...
GBPUSD continues to hold a little way above seven-month lows but looks susceptible to any drop in sentiment as tense and tough negotiations over Brexit commence yesterday (June 19th).Sterling traded above $1.28 in early trading as markets look for clues about where the talks are going to take the...
Welcome to day one of 730Brexit negotiations begin after nearly a whole year of speculation and build up. Yesterday at 11 a.m. BST in Brussels the door to the negotiation table opened. Theresa May’s government already appears to be on the ropes with a failed attempt to strengthen her...
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise rates on Wednesday but the big question for the market is whether June marks a pause in the current tightening cycle or if policymakers display a willingness for at least one more hike in 2017.The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets...
A stronger Conservative majority likely to produce short-term rally for sterling, but weigh on longer term prospects. Other results may produce risk-off selling in UK assets on political instability but increased chances of a softer Brexit may boost sentiment longer term.Sterling could go either way on Friday as the...
General Election 2017 market analysis - is a Labour government bad for stocks?Would a Labour win really be bad news for the FTSE? Stock markets are not that political but there is a widely-held belief that investors prefer a Conservative government to a Labour one. That is a deep-rooted...
A fairly bland format for a good debate, but the May vs Corbyn TV interviews certainly highlighted a few key themes and reinforced the growing view that this election is not such a done deal as first thought.Who won: May or Corbyn?Both sides of course claimed victory, and there...
Just a wobble; or something more? The general election is starting to look like it could spark some serious volatility as we head into June. For the first time a Tory landslide is not a given and there is reason to think that this alone could introduce a new...
A volatile market, due to its unsteady nature is automatically viewed as a fearful enemy by many new traders but it implies many connotations which do not carry any truth.Before you love it or hate it, you must understand it.Volatility is the extent to which a market can be...
How does the UK general election affect the pound? Traders are second-guessing where sterling is headed before the nation goes to the polls again on June 8th as politics seem to remain front and centre in the forex markets.Snap judgmentThe surprise move by Theresa May to call an early...
With the United Kingdom gunning for Brexit and France being pulled in the direction of Euroscepticism, we take a hypothetical look at how the European Union (EU) would deal with two exits simultaneously.For many, the U.K.’s decision to leave the EU was a death knell for the pan-European project....
Last month, U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May shocked the world by announcing a snap parliamentary election for June 8. The unnecessary appointment with voters was an attempt by the ruling Conservative majority to earn a stronger mandate to negotiate their exit from the European Union (EU). Although opinion polls...
EURUSD seems to be looking for an excuse to assault the $1.10 level and the ECB could provide the ammunition. But it might also prove a big disappointment.The pair has so far failed to maintain much momentum since the French election result produced a wave of relief across markets...
The Trump reflation trade was on full display in the first quarter, as investors rallied behind expectations of faster economic growth under the new GOP administration. However, gains slowed significantly in March after failed healthcare legislation in Washington undermined confidence in the Trump presidency.The large-cap S&P 500 Index returned...
US earnings season kicks off properly on April 13th as Citigroup, Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase & Co all report their first quarter revenues. Financials are set to be among the top performers and expectations are running high.Here’s our quick preview of what to expect from US earnings this quarter.EPS...
European stocks are find favour in many corners of the investment community as US stocks struggle for a fresh leg up.US stocks look expensiveBy just about any gauge, US stocks look pretty expensive. That’s not to say they won’t keep rising – but it does impact the decision making...
Dollar expectations skew GBPUSDThe British pound fell back sharply against the US dollar in hours before Prime Minister Theresa May triggered Article 50 to officially leave the EU. The trouble with using Brexit uncertainty to explain the drop in the pound is that the euro and yen also fell...
Where is the global economy going? With the Trump trade and global reflation, the outlook has improved a lot in recent months, according to some of the world's top money managers at least.The latest Global Fund Manager survey from Bank of America Merrill Lynch shows optimism remains firm despite...
The British government has confirmed it will trigger Article 50 to begin exiting the European Union on March 29th.Despite rocking a touch on the news, sterling got off to a pretty good start on Monday (March 20th) as it climbed to a three-week high against the US dollar. Notwithstanding...
Federal Reserve meeting – potential for hawkish surprise could be overstatedThe Federal Reserve is a dead cert to raise rates on Wednesday, so the key question is how far and how fast the US central bank will tighten monetary policy this year. Attention will shift to the signals for...
GBPUSD outlook more bullish, says Morgan Stanley.Sterling has slipped to a seven-week low ahead of the Budget, trading below $1.22 for the first time since Theresa May launched her campaign for a clean, hard Brexit back in the middle of January.But could now be the time to get bullish...

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Has Bitcoin Battered Gold?

Gold crumples again overnight as Bitcoin futures start trading, setting the scene for lower levels.I suspect it is no coincidence that the day that...
Oil Commodity

Oil’s Rally Falters After Kuwait Comments

Oil is under pressure in  Asia after comments from Kuwait over the weekend.Oil continued its sideways consolidation on Friday, as both Brent and WTI rode...
easyJet

Security fears and Brexit leave easyJet facing uncertain fourth quarter

British airline easyJet said it could not predict the outcome for the end of the year after growing security concerns, weaker consumer confidence and...