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The great adventure is over, and the settlers head home

When former Labor Prime Minister Tony Blair decided in 2004 that most Central and Eastern European countries would join the EU, he did not think it was too late to open the British labor market to newcomers, unlike Germany or Austria. According to some estimates, this led to a catastrophic flood on an island nation of 66 million at the height of settlement in Eastern Europe – Begins Article on immigration and immigration in the Financial Times.

To find the business article, Blair explained his decision that the economy was now in full swing, so newcomers needed workers and leaders. Nigel Farage, a former leader of the British Freedom Party who voted against the opening in parliament, said there had been no political decision in the UK in recent years and that it would have had a greater impact. It aims to make immigration a major issue in the 2016 referendum, and the main argument of those who voted to leave the EU is that without it their country would not be able to control EU immigration on the basis of the rule of free labor.

They settled themselves

Blair backs away that his government has completely underestimated the number of people, primarily from Poland and other countries that have recently joined the EU. Using free travel within the union, many have come to work in the black economy. Critics of the former prime minister say the country has opened its gates to import cheap labor, boosting the economy by boosting Labor’s chances of another election victory. The answer is that many well-educated people have come to the conclusion that guest workers should be barred from access to British social benefits, such as working overtime.

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A particular paradox to the progress made since the opening was that the major cities where most Eastern Europeans came from voted in 2016 to stay in the EU. Here, middle-class families tended to feel cheap but skilled labor, for example, for home renovation. In rural areas, however, newcomers weigh in on the potential of health and education systems, while relatively large numbers of segregated communities are striking compared to small populations.

Return

Nearly two decades later, the immigration trend now seems to be reversing. The 2016 referendum on Brexit came as a shock to many viewers who already felt at home in the island nation. The corona virus infection put a shrine on top of it and cut off many of their jobs, especially in hospitality. Tens of thousands have returned to their homeland over the past year. Madeleine Champan, director of the Migration Laboratory at Oxford University, says immigration is huge. Many will return if they leave Where will be They will work, but there will be many who will not return.

Experts have some problems if they want to give an accurate forecast of the processes. While they acknowledge that a historic turning point has come, definitive data remains problematic. The peak was in 2016, when 189,000 European migrant / guest workers arrived in a year more than they had left the UK. In the year to March 2020, net immigration was still 58,000, but since then data collection has become more difficult because the London government has stopped monitoring passengers at ports and airports, which was previously the basis for obtaining information on immigration.

The Center for Economic Statistics provides the highest estimate of the country’s declining foreign descent (both EU and non-EU). Accordingly, their number decreased by 1.3 million between the third quarter of 2019 and the third quarter of 2020. Ian Gordon, a professor at the London School of Economics, puts the number of immigrants at 235,000, 42,000 of whom may have been EU citizens.

Big question

Immigration raises a big question: Who will do the work that Eastern Europeans have done so far? Conservative Home Minister Priti Patel should not be ashamed of this. According to him, there is a local labor force, which is one-fifth of those aged 16 to 64 who are economically inactive. It is true that most of them are students, or persons caring for their family members, or suffering from a chronic illness, but they are still adequate.

The challenge in hospitality is enormous. A fourth software development company, which scanned the sector, surveyed 4,000 hospitality companies and found that more than two-fifths of them work with workers imported from the EU, who usually pay an hourly wage of 85,85 (HUF 3,750). (The UK average hourly wage for full-time workers will be .1.15.14 in 2020.) Two million workers in the industry are on compulsory leave due to the epidemic and it is not clear who will look after the foreign workers who have traveled home to entrepreneurship.

Who will work in hospitality and agriculture?

Many companies want to hire locals instead of immigrant and guest workers, but many hotels and inns have reported to the British business newspaper that the British have no teeth for the basic jobs they provide. The same is true of many other foreign-owned industries, such as the food industry and agriculture. In food and beverage processing, a quarter of the workforce comes from Eastern Europe, according to the Food and Beverage Federation.

Then there are 70-80 thousand seasonal agricultural workers, all of whom are from Eastern Europe. In a pilot project that won the support of farmers, Ukrainians and Belarusians engaged in seasonal work. At harvest time, 30,000 people are expected to enter, and its entry will not be hampered by Brexit post-immigration rules. Knowing that farmers would not prosper without guest workers, the exceptions were predicted as exceptions.