While Scotland will vote on May 6 on whether there should be a second referendum, financial managers and sales-side strategists see great turmoil in the UK economic environment in the coming years. Days like the first collapse like the Brexit vote are not yet seen in the markets, however Bloomberg The possibility of a second independent referendum has already been priced in the markets.
It is not certain whether the UK government will agree to another referendum, even if it is an independent party. They get the majority on Thursday In Parliament. But as the votes evoke confusing memories of Britain’s secession from the EU, it is important to know how fund managers throw away emergencies and trade the binary risk event.
“There will be a great deal of uncertainty, financial turmoil and recession,” Mark Nash, the money manager of Investment Management, told the portal on Thursday that the pound would depreciate by 10 percent. Nash has not yet seen that such a scenario has come into effect, as the market has remained calm. The pound will be 39 1.39 as of June, according to the Bloomberg survey average.
But there are already those who value the loss: Credit Agricol’s strategists are proposing to devalue the pound against the dollar, citing other political risks associated with Scottish independence. Barclays withdrew its recommendation to buy the pound against the euro, citing the possibility of pre-election volatility.
UPS Group’s credit rating strategists have downgraded their view of selected UK bank bonds from overweight to neutral, warning that the risk of a referendum could erode the “long UK credit trade”.
One thing is for sure: as things increase, cash managers need to move faster. The recurrence of the 2014 referendum was not so certain. Then Scotland voted for gold.