An all-day scientific conference rarely gets national publicity these days, but if we’ve said it lately An elite group of Hungarian statisticians and futurists gatheredIn order to chart what the likely scenarios for the next 30 years in Hungary might be, at scientific length, many would make noises in their heads. One of nearly twenty presentations at the meeting was about how powerful and highly uncertain forces and factors can determine the country’s future. Research teams working with statistical and textual methods have developed eight prospective alternatives. It also means that in the knowledge of these processes, the role and innovation of society and the elite falls or falls, whichever is achieved.
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The preparation of a four-part matrix helped to develop the scenario models.
Thus, the first four scenarios are determined by the development and human use of new technologies and the emergence of local supply chains as a result of climate change.
Photo: MTA Video
The most optimistic vision is that Hungary will become a network of responsible societies not in the network of a globalized world. According to Model 2, a country remains part of the global world without the full use of technology on a human scale. Projects 3 and 4 present a more bleak scenario, differing only in their shades. According to the most pessimistic scenario, Hungary is in the shadow of the global world, which is quite vulnerable to new technologies.
On the other hand, the second four paradigms are determined by the extent to which health and sustainability become a value in society in general, and the extent to which these two domains capture the minds of decision makers.
The most rosy scenario if they both post that In the present situation, these values must be followed, and decision makers subordinate everything to these two goals. If this change in value only takes place in society, Hungary will become a stressful society, and if both fail, social and environmental catastrophe may occur in the country. Likewise, social and economic tensions can arise only if sustainability becomes a priority and violent greening begins.
The moderators, Eva Hedge and Mihaly Hrithik, said at the end of the show that their goal was to make people and decision makers aware of these connections and models and start a dialogue in the community about them. There is finally a need to consciously shape our future after a thorough understanding of the processes, so these scientific findings are communicated to decision makers.
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