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Weekly View: Markets between economic optimism and fears of a “third wave”

All of this is not really the case: in the United States, more than 100 million people have already been vaccinated Trigger checks 9 from the 1.9 trillion trigger set. So as the U.S. economy recovers, many Americans receive another free gift from the government, this time $ 1,400 per person. Given the reopening economy and the real flood of cash flow, it is not surprising that optimistic forecasts have been dashed. The US Federal Reserve expects economic growth in the United States of 6.5 percent for the current year and wants to ease its monetary policy for the time being. At the same time, current economic data do not match the overflowing optimism: weekly early unemployment claims, which help keep track of the U.S. labor market almost real-time, are two to three times higher than before the onset of the corona lockout, which rose again a year ago and last week.

While optimism is widespread in the United States, fears about a third corona wave are widespread in Europe. The next will be ready by Monday Federal and state consultations on corona epidemic In. Due to increasing events, the agreed “emergency break” is likely to be pulled in many regions, for example, already in Hamburg. If the Federal Chancellor and the Prime Minister stick to their previous line, the return to normalcy expected by many will not happen for the time being.

Maximum achievements in DAX, Dow Jones and S&P500

Given the precarious situation, it is not surprising that markets are also a little unresolved. In the United States this is due to rising inflation and growth expectations Rate increase Continuing last week (the yield on ten-year U.S. federal bonds is now 1.73 percent), yields in Germany have not risen.

As well as The stock market No identical image: Docs, Dow Jones and S&P500 US technology stocks, which are sensitive to interest, continued to fall, reaching a new record high last week, while the Nasdaq-100 lost 1.4 percent a week.

This was more than six per cent of them Oil prices WTI and Brent Down Types: Here, the undesirable growth of the corona epidemic in Europe, in addition to being less optimistic than the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts, saw a “super cycle” in the crude oil market, with a negative impact.

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Weekly winner with 11 percent increase Palladium. Leading Russian manufacturer Nornigel has slashed production forecasts for 2021 for palladium, platinum, copper and nickel by 15 to 20 percent following problems at its mines.

Weekly performance of critical foundations (until Friday, approximately 10:40 p.m.)

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Focus on leading indicators and index changes

Over the next week, leading indicators will provide new information on the current state of the economy. The codes of the preliminary procurement managers for the industry and service sector (including Europe and the US) of data service provider Market will be released on Wednesday. The most important leading indicator of the German economy will continue with the IPO trading climate on Friday. Although the data could be upgraded, progress should only be temporary due to the threat of updating corona operations.

In Germany, changes to Deutsche Pars’ selection codes will take effect on Monday. Siemens energy rises to DAX, while Pearstorf falls from DAX to MDAX. Shares of Porsche Automobile Holding, Encavis and Nordex are also new to MDAX, while Ariel Bank, Metro and Osram are leaving the Litch index. In Techtox, the new job will be replaced by SMA solar technology. There are also some changes in SDAX.

During the reporting season, EON (Wednesday) and Deutsche Wonnen (Thursday) will present figures for the 2020 fiscal year on DAX next week. On Wednesday, newcomer Auto1 released its first annual report after going public. Many other companies will provide quarterly figures for the coming week, but preliminary key data are generally already known.

In the United States, Adobe and the video game chain GameStop are encouraged by private investors, figures released on Tuesday.

Important economic data for the coming week

Monday, March 22, 2021

10:00 – Eurozone: ECP Current Account Balance January (Seasonally Adjusted) னில் Billion
12:00 – Germany: Bundesbank Monthly Report March
13:30 – United States: Chicago Central Bank National Schedule for February
15:00 – USA: Sales of existing homes in February (year) in the millions
15:45 – Eurozone: ECP purchase volume
Without the right time: Federal Chancellor’s video conference with state ministers-heads on the Corona situation

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Tuesday, March 23, 2021

03:00 – New Zealand: Credit card issues February y / y
06:00 – Japan: BoJ Core Consumer Price Rate February y / y
08:00 – United Kingdom: February Unemployment Beneficiaries m / m
8:00 am – United Kingdom: January unemployment rate (3-month average)
08:00 – United Kingdom: Average earnings index for the three months ending January y / y
12:00 – UK: CBI Index Industry Orders Expectations March
13:30 – US: Current account balance in Q4 US dollars
13:55 – USA: Red Book retail sales up m / m from previous week
15:00 – USA: February New Home Sale (Year) In You
15:00 – USA: Richmond Fed Production Schedule Mars
15:00 – China: Leading Indicators Index February m / m
15:00 – US: Federal President Jerome Powell heard before House Committee (!)
21:30 – USA: API oil stocks in million barrels
22:45 – New Zealand: February trade balance in million NZ in
23:00 – Australia: Product Purchasing Managers Index March (Temporary)
23:00 – Australia: Managers’ Code Services Department March (Temporary) Purchase

Wednesday, March 24, 2021

00:50 – Japan: Service Prices (SPPI) February y / y
00:50 – Japan: Minutes of Monetary Policy Meeting
01:30 – Australia: January trade balance in AU $ billion
01:30 – Japan: Product Purchasing Managers Index March (Preliminary)
08:00 – Germany: Nominal pay / actual pay scale, Q4 2020
08:00 – United Kingdom: Consumer prices February y / y
08:00 – United Kingdom: Manufacturer Prices (Input) February m / m
08:00 – United Kingdom: Manufacturer Prices (Release) February m / m
08:00 – United Kingdom: Retail Prices February y / y
09:15 – France: Product Purchasing Managers Index March (Temporary)
09:15 – France: Managers’ Code Service Department March (Temporary) Purchase
09:30 – Germany: Product Purchasing Managers Index March (Temporary) (!)
09:30 – Germany: Purchasing Managers Index Services Department March (Temporary)
10:00 – Eurozone: Product Purchasing Managers Index March (Temporary) (!)
10:00 – Eurozone: Managers’ Code Service Department March (Temporary) Purchase
10:00 – Eurozone: Index of Joint Purchasing Managers March (Temporary)
10:30 am – United Kingdom: Production BMI March
10:30 am – United Kingdom: Services Department Purchasing Managers Index March
10:30 am – United Kingdom: Home Price Schedule January y / y
12:00 PM – US: MBA Mortgage Applications Previous Week w / w
13:30 – United States: Incoming orders for durable goods February m / m (!)
14:45 – United States: Market Product BMI March (Temporary)
14:45 – United States: Market Purchasing Managers’ Index of Services (March)
15:00 – USA: Senate Bank Committee to investigate Central Bank Chairman Jerome Powell
3:30 pm – USA: Millions of barrels of crude oil w / w
16:00 – Eurozone: Consumer Confidence March (Preliminary)
16:30 – Australia: Leading Indicators CB Index January m / m

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Thursday, March 25, 2021

8:00 am – Germany: Public Credit, Q4 2020
8:00 am – Germany: GFK Consumer Climate for April
08:00 – Germany: Orders in the construction industry January (seasonally adjusted) m / m
08:45 – France: Inche business environment (overall index) March
09:30 – Switzerland: SNP interest rate decision
10:00 – Eurozone: Payment M3 February y / y
10:00 – Eurozone: February y / y loans to the private sector
10:00 – Eurozone: ECP Economic Report
12:00 – United Kingdom: CBI March Retail Schedule
13:30 – USA: Early Unemployment Demands in thsd last week
13:30 – US: Q4 (final) q / q (!) In GDP
13:30 – USA: Last week there were millions of demands for unemployment benefits
15:00 – Belgium: March Business Climate Code
3:30 pm – USA: Natural Gas Storage at PCF

Friday, March 26, 2021

00:30 – Japan: Greater Tokyo consumer prices (key rate) March y / y
8:00 am – United Kingdom: February retail m / m
10:00 – Germany: Ifo Business Climate Schedule March (!)
10:00 – Germany: Ipoh business situation in March
10:00 – Germany: Ifo Business Expectations March
13:30 – US: Consumer spending February m / m
13:30 – US: Personal income February m / m
13:30 – USA: PCE core rate February m / m
13:30 – US: Trade reserves for goods in February at US $ 1 billion
13:30 – US: February Wholesale Commodities (Preliminary) m / m
15:00 – USA: Consumer Climate Uni Michigan March (Final)
20:30 – USA: Traders Obligations (COT) Report