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Will Merkel’s party flee?

Election results

The CDU won the last district elections before the September parliamentary vote by a large margin in Saxony-Anhalt. The biggest loser was Alternative Germany (AfD), once considered the main competitor, which, according to opinion polls, was also weaker than expected and resulted in the previous Landtag elections of 2016, but remains the second political force in the eastern region of the country.

It is clear that the left parties were poorly represented in the vote. The Left (Die Linke) squad, which performed almost exclusively in the former East German provinces, took third place, but its 11 percent score was 5.3 percentage points lower than in 2016. The SPD fell below the 10 percent mark for the first time. He received 8.4 percent of the vote, down 2.2 percentage points from the previous election.

The two parties only showed strength in the province, but neither of them rejoiced. vegetables sounds 5.9 percent was obtained, up 0.7 percentage points from the result of 5.2 percent five years ago, however It lags far behind the party’s ambitions, which aims to take over the leadership of the federal government after the federal elections in September. Liberal Party FDP Although you might consider it a success that you crossed the 5 percent threshold this time, so Ten years later, it was again represented in the provincial council, but its result lags behind the indicators measured at the federal level.

I really need to win

There is no doubt about it The CDU really needed victory in many ways. It was the last test of strength before the national elections on September 26, after which, for the first time in 16 years, the CDU and its sister party, the Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU), stopped severing their relationship with Angela Merkel. , But Many also feared that the AfD could take the lead in the German boycottAs a result, it became almost certain that the contradictions between the union parties regarding the attitude towards the Alternative for Germany would have flared up again. Indeed, within the Saxon-Anhalt CDU, there are politicians who see cooperation with the populist party as possible despite clear guidelines from the central leadership.

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Seeing the election results, Armin Laschet could also be inspired by the CDU/CSU chancellor candidate, who has been criticized by many in recent weeks for his declining popularity, and a boycott loss or poor performance will almost certainly reduce his chances. To win the chancellorship.

Maga CDU has also suffered a huge loss in popularity latelyIt also performed poorly in the last local elections. This was largely due to stagnant vaccine shipments, unpopular restrictions on the coronavirus that have lasted for months, and recent cases of corruption by Conservative MPs. And we should not forget that Angela Merkel is no longer running for chancellor this year, so the conservative parties had to look for a new candidate, which Armin Laschet could only find at the expense of small civil conflicts.

Moreover, recently, the Green Party, according to several measures, has bypassed the CDU / CSU alliance, and some have already envisioned taking the lead in the Bundestag after the September elections.

Did Merkel’s party stop running?

The big question is to what extent the current results can be explained at the federal level, or whether the CDU has managed to break out of the cycle of unpopularity. Reality, The party managed to flatten its lines and push back the political wing that winked in favor of the AfD. The reinforcement of the narrative against Alternative for Germany is illustrated by Laschet’s statement that it seeks to position the CDU as the only one against political extremism. stronghold, most likely trying to win over voters.

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However, a related analysis by ING warns that it would be too early to draw far-reaching conclusions from the Saxony-Anhalt elections.

On the other hand, Saxony-Anhalt has a population of 2.2 million One of the smallest counties in the countryAs with all provincial elections, The outcome of the vote is affected by local, regional and federal factors simultaneously, so you have to handle the data very carefully.

However, the following factors are worth considering:

  • The CDU broke from its lows after naming its chancellor’s candidate Armin Laschet. The acceleration of the vaccination campaign to curb the coronavirus epidemic and the high popularity of the CDU prime minister may also have contributed to the success of the current elections. It is also clear that The party has been boosted in recent weekst, especially in light of the fact that the Merkel group has consistently performed poorly in recent provincial elections.
  • vegetables Experienced in recent weeks She also stopped her amazing progresst, even if this is only a temporary phenomenon. We should also add that the Green Party has never been really strong in the former East German provinces, and Sunday’s election did not change that. Although her popularity soared when they launched an independent candidate for chancellor, Annalena Barbock, Several sensitive cases have affected a person in your life In recent weeks, which may have left its mark on the party’s rule. Contradictions It was discovered in his official biography, and many people were attacked for receiving it from his party About the reward He did not make a statement before the Bundestag. Nor was it good for greens to be popular in May to close Among their ranks is Boris Palmer, mayor of Tübingen, due to racist manifestations.
  • An important factor according to ING analysis is Years of deep movement of the SPD, which also appeared in the election results. As for the FDP, the vote in Saxony-Anhalt does not necessarily reflect the party’s recent strengthening at the federal level. although, The FDP could be an important factor in coalition negotiations after the federal election and could serve as the laughing third in the duel between the CDU and the Greens.
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In short, the analysis concludes that based on the district elections so far (Baden-Württemberg, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saxony-Anhalt) The winds of change in Germany are not necessarily blowingAs in the three cases, the regional leadership remained in its positions. It must also be kept in mind that there is still more than 3 and a half months until the federal election, due to an accelerated vaccination program, reopening of the economy and government aid. The economic effects of the coronavirus are not necessarily the focus of the campaign.

The analysis continues to be the most effective federal-level CDU-Green coalition, emphasizing that until September we will still see unexpected rounds in German political life.

Cover image source: Getty Images