We’ve only listened to reports on climate change decades ago, but there have been no serious steps, so now we’ve come to the point where no one is safe – one of the key findings of the United Nations just coming out – from ever researching climate change. The sixth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on this topic was summarized on the basis of more than 14,000 scientific articles, where scientific research is now taking place, and the results of which are now presented.

When it comes to climate change, there is always a suggestion that the temperature of the planet has changed before. However, based on what we now know about climate change, one According to research published this year It can be argued with increasing confidence that human activity is entirely responsible for the warming observed since the Industrial Revolution, rather than a natural change in nature. But it has also been scientifically proven that last year’s heat wave in Siberia can be traced back to human activity, and the extreme heat of the summer of 2018 in Europe was not so extreme – and the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) could not even deal with this summer due to shortage of time.

The year 2020 brought great changes in the lives of each of us, but it had only a short-term impact on the climate. With many staying indoors during the worst of the pandemic and the Great Recession on farms, emissions have fallen to 83 percent from 2019 levels, where they haven’t been since 2006, but have since returned to pre-pandemic rates. The report can only highlight the following as positive:

The pandemic has shown that climate change should not be expected to improve from one-off shutdowns that have a very bad impact on everyone’s lives, but that a sustainable and socially just long-term model must be developed quickly until the catastrophe is completed.

In 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change calculated that if we do not reduce global carbon emissions, sometime between 2030 and 2052, the Earth’s average temperature could be 1.5 degrees higher than it was before industrialization. That’s 22 years a bit long, so now it’s made clear: We’ll still achieve a degree and a half change with 440 gigatons of CO2 emissions, and with emissions above 40 gigatons in 2019, it’s not hard to calculate that we’ll reach 2030 at this rate is out of bounds. Experts on the subject are also increasingly confident that while climate catastrophe will not be the only tragic event if we are to find the point at which irreversible processes will begin, an increase in average temperature of 1.5 degrees is a fairly reliable point. What.

Damaged apartment buildings in Mikulci, southern Moravia on June 25, 2021. A cyclone accompanied by hail the night before devastated southern Moravia, causing extensive material damage, killing at least three people and injuring at least 150. It left more than 32,000 families without electricity and also cut off gas supplies to avoid possible explosions.

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Half of global GDP is produced in countries where, at a design level at least, the idea of ​​achieving final emissions has emerged over decades – which of course means that the other half is produced in places where there is no such thing. An idea, which is less encouraging. Although the authors of the report point out that this is not a scientific decision, but a political one, they were able to add to this: the melting of polar ice and the resulting rise in sea level are causing changes in the average temperature. from the planet too.

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However, they say it’s still worth working towards. one of them cite research, that if emissions are reduced rapidly, warming will continue, but will be more predictable, and records of extreme heat will be less frequent in high heat waves,

That is, both economic and political decision-makers will have more time to adapt to the situation and find solutions.

This can lead to noticeable changes, even in the right direction, over a period of time that may seem like a long time for a politician preparing for his next re-election, but in reality it can be felt almost all in our region. A life, not only for posterity: If only changes to the Paris climate agreement could be complied withWe can already realize that we don’t have much to fear from extreme heat waves in 2040.

A house damaged in the floods of the Ahr River in Insul in the Rhineland-Palatinate on July 15, 2021

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After presenting the report, physicist and climate researcher Diana Arge-Vorsatz, as a guest of the Halfway Press Club, spoke about what’s worth paying attention to in this matter. In his summary, the message was very simplistic:

It is still physically possible to achieve a goal of less than a degree and a half, and the question is whether there is the political will to do so.

This can only be problematic because the developed world has to make bigger cuts. Indeed, in deprived countries, many people need to be lifted out of poverty by releasing emissions targets a little more, which means that in order to achieve the global average, it will have to be lowered further here.

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It is possible to calculate with a goal of a degree and a half, but it does not hurt to know that if we stay with current processes, the warming will be 5 degrees by the end of the century. The most optimistic scenario is just based on staying below 1.5 degrees all the time, it’s a little realistic for you to rise a little more than a degree and be able to go down from there,” explained Diana Orji-Forsatz. How dangerous is that if the average temperature increases by an amount By four degrees, the risk of extreme heat waves would be 40 times greater than now, if by two degrees, it would be 14. Based on the climate of Central Europe, it is likely that if there is no change, there are many periods of intense precipitation here, with Lightning floods, and in places like Hungary, which is in the center of the continent, most of the population lives in cities, and heat waves can be more severe in other parts of the world.

Volunteers fight a forest fire on August 7, 2021 near the town of Kyogorila in the Gornji region of Yakutia. In Yakutia, about four million hectares of forest were burned in the previous weeks, and sixteen settlements are threatened by forest fires.

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It may be of particular importance to Hungarian politics that there is a very high risk of drought in those regions of the world from which many emigrate to Europe.